164 
FXUS61 KCLE 140812
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
412 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south across the area Friday morning,
followed by a strong upper level ridge that will persist through 
the weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A relative lull is in place across the region as a mesoscale
complex slides east across central and southern OH.
Simultaneously, a well-defined cold front is pushing south 
across Lake Erie early this morning, evident on radar and 
characterized by decreasing dew points into the 50s behind the 
front across Ontario and abrupt, northerly wind shifts. 

Unfortunately, this means that much of the region will likely 
remain dry once again as the front continues to push south 
across the area through today. Depending on the front's 
southward progression throughout today, there could be some 
additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon, 
especially along the US-30 corridor, though given recent trends,
confidence appears to be decreasing in this potential and 
anticipate PoPs may need to be lowered in the next update as
residual outflow boundaries appear to be much further south and
east. However, if any storms are able to develop later this 
afternoon along the front, they will have a narrow and brief
window to become strong to severe with favorable mid- level 
shear of 40 to 50 knots in addition to modest MLCAPE of ~1000 
J/kg. These storms would primarily pose a wind/hail threat given
straight and long hodographs.

Quiet and more seasonable weather will arrive on Saturday with
highs generally upper 70s to lower 80s. This will likely be the
last "nice" weather day for a while as a prolonged heat wave begins
to develop on Sunday and is expected to persist through much of
next week. More details on that below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level high over the southern plains region will migrate 
eastward and build over the eastern third of the CONUS for the end 
of the week and into early next week. The main story is a building 
heat wave over the region that has been in the forecast for a few 
days now with temperatures well into the 90s by Monday. Only far NW 
PA will potentially remain in the upper 80s, but conversely, on the 
western end of the CWA upper 90s should be expected. The 
ground/surface continues to dry out overall despite a little rain 
yesterday in NW OH which will contribute to the ability of the 
temperatures to climb. Will need to see if there will be any cloud 
cover, but likely just some cumulus fields for the CWA. The 
operational long terms differ a little bit with one having lower 
500mb heights and 850mb temperatures, and also suggesting convection 
possible with enough layer moisture while the other has a stronger 
dome of high pressure aloft and less convective coverage in the 
return flow setup. Leaning towards the hotter and drier solution for 
this forecast into Monday. Immediate lakeshore areas may be a couple 
degrees cooler Monday, but the southerly wind component will likely 
eliminate much of that advantage. Dewpoints mainly in the mid 60s to 
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Heat wave will continue into the long term portion of the forecast 
towards the end of next week. No real changes to the pattern 
overall. The upper level high will likely shift towards the 
northeastern US, but this will not change the sensible weather much 
for our CWA. Expect 90s to be the norm through the week and very 
little in the way of rain chances with no organized systems moving 
into the region with the largely blocked upper level pattern. Will 
be needing rain by the end of the long term forecast as it stands 
with this issuance. Dewpoints persist in the mid 60s to lower 70s 
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with primarily VFR
to persist through the TAF period. There is low confidence of
scattered showers/isolated thunder moving east across the area
early Friday morning, so have not included any mention at this
time. Slightly better chance of a brief window of isolated to 
scattered thunderstorms across the US-30 corridor, primarily
impacting CAK/MFD Friday afternoon, so have added vcts mention.
There could be a narrow corridor of MVFR ceilings ahead of an
approaching cold front on Friday morning/afternoon, but
confidence is low.

Winds are generally from the southwest early this morning, 5 to
10 knots. Winds will abruptly shift towards the north behind a
cold front through Friday morning and afternoon, 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
With a cold front coming through, onshore winds prevail today 
through tonight 15-20kts for the central and western basins of Lake 
Erie with 1-3ft wave heights, becoming 10-15kts Saturday with a more 
easterly component to the winds and waves gradually subsiding to the 
1-2ft range. From Sunday on, expect offshore winds to prevail with 
high pressure situated to the east of the region and nearshore wave 
heights generally a foot or less through the rest of the forecast 
period. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected next week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs on several 
days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Friday June 21 are 
listed below for our official climate sites. 


Date   Toledo     Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie        
06-17  97(1994)    94(1936)   94(2018)    94(2018)   95(1994)    90(2018)       
06-18  98(1994)    93(1994)   96(1944)    96(1944)   95(1994)    92(2018)       
06-19  98(1995)    94(1994)   92(1995)    94(1994)   94(1994)    92(1931)       
06-20  98(1953)    94(1988)   96(1988)    95(1933)   95(1933)    92(2016)       
06-21  100(2022)   96(1988)   95(2022)    97(1933)   98(1933)    95(1933)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...26
CLIMATE...