636 
FXUS63 KGLD 122100
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) 
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2023

Tonight...a rather moist airmass for mid December (precipitable 
water values 0.5 to 0.7 inches) with a near daily max of 0.82 inches 
in the Dodge City forecast area approaches areas south of I-70 
overnight from the south. We'll have some slight chance and low 
chance pops for some light snow to account for the approaching plume 
of moisture toward sunrise Wednesday morning. Low temperatures are 
forecast to be in the lower to middle 20s. 

Wednesday-Wednesday night...the moisture rich airmass continues 
slowly moving north, encompassing the entire area during the day and 
through the night, steered north ahead of an upper level low 
pressure area south of the four corners area and upper ridge axis 
extending from the gulf into the forecast area. Precipitation 
chances increase through the day, remaining high during the night 
before the axis of deepest moisture slowly shifts east after 
midnight. Presently, we're expecting a combination of rain and/or 
snow for various parts of the area during the day with rain 
generally east of Highway 25 with a rain snow mix to the west and 
all snow across western parts of our far eastern Colorado counties 
(where nothing to a few tenths of accumulation possible). For the 
overnight hours, a rain snow mix is likely west of Highway 25 with 
snow west of Highway 27. Additional snowfall amounts of nothing to 
perhaps 3 inches are currently anticipated, highest amounts across 
parts of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado. Across the 
eastern 1/4 of the area, rain is the primary precipitation type. 

High temperatures will remain below normal with middle 30s to lower 
40s currently advertised. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 
middle 20s to lower 30s. 

If the cooler NAM model verifies, surface temperatures across the 
area would be a few degrees lower than currently advertised. That 
could be enough to change the precipitation type, especially where a 
mix is forecast to all snow and thus an increased potential for 
higher snowfall amounts. 

Thursday-Thursday night...as the upper low slowly moves east into 
New Mexico during the day, we'll continue to have rather high pops 
for rain or a rain/snow mixing the morning before some drier air 
moves in from the northwest, sliding the higher pops across the 
southeast 1/2 of the area in the afternoon. During the overnight 
hours, the upper low is forecast to move into the Texas panhandle 
with the better moisture for precipitation (primarily rain) steadily 
moving east and nearly out of the forecast area by sunrise Friday 
morning. High temperatures remain below normal in the middle 30s to 
lower 40s with low temperatures in the lower 20s to around 30. It 
will be breezy during the day with southerly winds gusting 25 to 35 
mph.  

Friday...dry weather is anticipated as the upper low and its 
precipitation shield move away from the area. High temperatures are 
forecast to be in the 45 to 50 degree range, a few degrees above 
normal for the date. Breezy north to northwesterly winds are 
anticipated along and west of the CO/KS border. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1157 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2023

From the latest GFS/ECMWF, an exiting upper low over the central 
Mississippi River Valley Friday night into Saturday will allow a 
broad, amplified upper ridge to trek eastward from the central 
Rockies. The ridge crests over the Plains region Sunday night into 
next Monday, sliding east for Tuesday and allowing for SW flow aloft 
to set up. 

At the surface, the passage of a couple areas of high pressure will 
be supplemented by a couple weak lee-side troughs that set up over 
the Front Range, move east into the Plains then dissipate. Overall 
the area looks to be precip-free during the extended period, but 
above normal temperatures will ensue. At most some increasing cloud 
cover is expected next Monday into Tuesday with the passage of a 
700mb shortwave. Lack of any dent low level moisture/instability 
will negate any precip potential at this time.

For temps, highs for the upcoming weekend will have an increasing 
trend from the 40s on Saturday into the mid and upper 50s for 
Sunday. Going into next week, daytime highs continue to range above 
normal for both Monday and Tuesday with lower to mid 50s expected. 
Overnight lows on Friday night will range in the upper teens to 
lower 20s. Thereafter, low to mid 20s are expected each night. The 
expected overnight lows will bring about wind chill readings in the 
single numbers to lower teens above zero Friday night, with teens 
for each overnight thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 950 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2023

KGLD...VFR conditions are currently expected from taf issuance
through about 14z. Southeast winds gusting up to 25kts at taf
issuance will continue through about 22z, subsiding to around
11kts through 02z. After 03z, east to northeast winds under 10kts
are expected. Stratus and sub VFR conditions are expected to reach
the terminal from the south as early as 12z with higher confidence
closer to 15z. After 15z, precipitation may reach the terminal
from the south. Presently, it would be in the form of light snow. 

KMCK...VFR conditions are currently expected through the period.
An east wind around 12kts at taf issuance will continue through
22z, subsiding under 10kts around 23z. For the rest of the taf
period, east to northeast winds around 5-6kts are expected.
Presently, sub VFR cigs look to hold off until the very end of the
taf period or shortly after. 


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99