170 
FXUS63 KFSD 110937
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
337 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Temperatures moderating to above normal levels into the middle of 
next week.

2. Sprinkles possible east of Interstate 29 today, otherwise dry 
conditions are expected into next week.

 3. With above normal temperatures and occasional breezy periods, 
there will be an elevated fire danger each afternoon.


Surface low pressure over southwestern SD early this morning will
push to the east through the day, becoming situated over eastern 
SD by this evening. In conjunction with this, a warm front will 
lift across our area, bringing moderating temperatures by this 
afternoon. With moderating 925 mb temperatures in the warm air 
advection regime, highs will top out around 50 north of Interstate
90 to upper 50s through the central and lower MO River corridor. 
Aloft, an upper level shortwave will track across the region 
during the day. This and midlevel warm air advection provided by a
40 kt low level jet oriented from eastern NE into south central 
MN could produce a few sprinkles east of Interstate 29 in the 
afternoon. Do not expect much in the way of measurable 
precipitation with model soundings indicating a good bit of low 
level dry air in place across the area. With the low level jet 
overhead and a steep surface pressure gradient out ahead of the 
aforementioned surface low, it will be breezy from the Interstate 
29 corridor and eastward. This will result in an enhanced fire 
danger over that area during the afternoon.

A weak cold front will sweep across the region on Sunday. This will 
have little impact on the sensible weather other than producing 
somewhat breezy northwesterly winds in the cold air advection 
regime, along with drier air advecting in behind the front. This 
will result in lower afternoon dew points (30-40%) as compared to 
today. Thus, even with lighter winds than today, there will again be 
an enhanced fire danger. The weak cold air advection will have
little impact on 925 mb temperatures, and highs be in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

The theme for Monday through Thursday of next week will be 
continuing above normal temperatures as upper level ridging builds 
across the region for the beginning of the week - transitioning to a 
more zonal flow by midweek. Both NAEFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate 
850-500 mb temperatures in the 90th percentile with respect to 
climatology through this period. This will play out to much of our 
area having highs into the 60s on those days - which is around 10 to 
15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Unfortunately it 
looks to remain dry through the week. With the above normal 
temperatures, lack of moisture, and some breezy days 
(Monday/Tuesday/Thursday), the fire danger will likely be enhanced 
each day. Models are suggesting that an upper level trough will 
sweep into the Northern Plains by the end of next week, and this 
could bring a return to more seasonable temperatures. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1044 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023

MVFR stratus has moved off to the northeast, leaving VFR
conditions across the area tonight. High clouds are moving in from
the east, with some mid level clouds east of I-29. Expect mid and
high clouds to prevail through tomorrow night. Southeast winds
expected tonight, increasing into the mid morning hours. Gusts
around 20 to 25 knots prevail. LLWS is expected at KSUX and
adjacent areas of the MO Valley and northwestern IA, and could see
marginal LLWS conditions at KFSD, but confidence is too low to
include at this time. 

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...SG