299 
FXUS63 KGLD 041727
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1127 AM MDT Sat Nov 4 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night) 
Issued at 234 AM MDT Sat Nov 4 2023

Slight chance at precipitation through the morning and elevated to 
near critical fire weather conditions Sunday are in store for the 
Tri-State area.

A shortwave ahead of a ridge is causing northerly flow aloft while a 
mid-level trough to the northeast of the area is creating some weak 
forcing over the extreme northern portions of the CWA. This forcing, 
along with increased moisture and a small amount of elevated 
instabilty is causing some light precipitation to occur. Behind the 
shortwave, the ridge will start building in and clear away the 
clouds and lingering precipitation by the early afternoon. 

A fairly strong inversion will form over the area overnight tonight 
and winds will calm down, especially in the southeastern CWA. This 
could lead to fog formation around 11Z until around 14Z. The extent 
and density of the fog is still in question due to disagreement in 
surface wind speeds. This does not seem to advection fog, so 
increased winds would limit the impact of the fog.

With the clear skies and the return of southwesterly low-level 
winds, we will warm up into the mid to upper 70s Sunday. This will 
be unseasonably warm, but no records look in danger of being broken.
Due to the warmer temperatures Sunday, fire weather conditions will 
be elevated to near-critical. Minimum RH values will be in the mid 
to upper teens in eastern Colorado, but winds are currently expected 
to remain under 15 kts in the afternoon. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) 
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sat Nov 4 2023

Zonal flow aloft is expected over the Tri-State area on Tuesday. 
Near the surface, the lee trough is expected to strengthen over the 
area while a cold front moves southeast across the Central Plains 
Tuesday afternoon into the early evening hours. There is concern for 
elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon for those in 
Cheyenne County, Colorado as well as, Wallace and Greeley Counties 
in Kansas. RH values could drop into the mid teens in that area 
while the remainder of the forecast area stays mainly in the 20s 
to 40s. Winds are not favorable as of now, even with the frontal 
passage with westerly winds shifting north to east gusting up to 
20 mph. Overnight lows look to be in the 30s to lower 40s.

Wednesday, the area will be under southwest flow aloft as a upper 
trough moves over the Western CONUS. Weak instability and a 
shortwave traveling over the region will bring a slight chance 
for precipitation Wednesday Night, mainly west of the Colorado 
border. Currently expecting light rain to be the main p-type with 
potential for light snow or a rain/snow mix for those closer to 
the Palmer Divide. With cold air advection moving in with a broad 
area of high pressure near the surface, temperatures are expected 
to begin decreasing gradually through the end of next week. High 
temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s are possible Wednesday with 
overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Thursday looks to be 
even cooler with highs in the upper 40s to 50s. Overnight lows 
look to be in the 20s. Friday looks to be more normal for 
temperatures with highs in the 50s across the Tri-State area and 
overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1106 AM MDT Sat Nov 4 2023

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecasted at both TAF sites
with near surface winds roughly from the south at around 10 kts.
For KMCK, there is a very low chance of fog around 12Z along with
LLWS. Both are dependent on the wind speeds as near surface winds
of 5 or less knots could allow for some fog to form, but the
direction from the southwest is not generally favorable for fog
development. For LLWS, winds around 300-500ft could increase to
around 30kts before and around sunrise. While not the greatest
chance, there was enough support to include it in the TAF. Look
for updates in future TAFs.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...KAK