490 
FXUS64 KMEG 090202
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
902 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023

Skies are clear across the Mid-South this evening with
temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures are several
degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Winds have decoupled this
evening which should allow temperatures to drop into the upper 40s
to lower 50s by Monday morning. Current forecast appears to be in
good shape so will not make any changes at this time.

ARS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023

A warming trend will continue each day through the end of the
workweek. Highs will climb back to the upper 70s and lower 80s by
midweek. A cold front will move through the region late week with
rain chances and cooler temperatures returning next weekend. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023

Another beautiful fall day is underway across the region.
Temperatures are in the upper 60s areawide under abundantly sunny
skies. The latest surface analysis places a 1022mb high over
eastern Texas with a 1012mb low over Iowa with an attendant cold 
front extending southwest into Nebraska and northwest back into 
eastern Montana. Aloft, an extremely large and deep 534dam upper 
low was located over Quebec with a broad trough encompassing the 
eastern two thirds of CONUS. 

The aforementioned surface low and frontal system will pivot 
southeast into the Ohio River Valley on Monday as a shortwave 
rounds the base of the main trough. A trailing cold front will 
push into the the Mid-South late Monday night. This will 
reinforce the dry airmass across the region for Tuesday. The 
front is expected to lift back north as a warm front by Wednesday 
as the main trough retreats north into Canada and a southern 
stream shortwave lifts into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Dry conditions and near normal temperatures are expected to
persist Wednesday into much of Friday, as the Mid-South remains
under shortwave ridging. A longwave trough over the PAC Northwest
is expected to deepen and spawn a surface low to the lee side of 
the Rockies by Thursday night. This front will quickly push from
the Central Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley on 
Friday. Low level moisture will pool ahead of the front on Friday 
as surface temperatures climb into the lower 80s. This will yield 
up to around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the Mid-South during the 
afternoon hours. The cold front will push through the Mid-South 
Friday night into Saturday. The best dynamics with this system 
appear to follow the frontal passage, so forcing does not appear
to be very strong along the front. Nonetheless, there seems to 
some potential for a few strong storms Friday and Friday night,
especially if the instability is realized. 

Much cooler conditions are expected behind the front for next 
weekend. Highs will fall back into the 60s for highs with 40s for 
lows. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023

No significant impacts are expected this TAF period. Southwest
winds at and below 10 kts are expected until Monday afternoon,
when an approaching front shifts winds to a westerly direction.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...ANS