659 
FXUS63 KGLD 251937
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
137 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 354 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2023

At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows 
the CWA having a northwesterly flow aloft being underneath the front 
portion of an upper air ridge off to the west over the Rocky 
Mountains with an upper air low over MN. Current surface 
observations and satellite imagery report dry conditions along 
with light and variable surface winds across the CWA underneath 
clear skies this morning. For the rest of Monday, forecast 
guidance shows the CWA's upper air flow turning more north-
northwesterly underneath the ridge with the upper air low moving 
over the IA/MN border by the evening hours. At the surface, models
show a surface high moving from western NE into northeastern KS 
through the day. Light and variable surface winds are expected 
across the CWA during the day as a result that look to turn more 
southerly overnight with a surface low developing in eastern CO. 
With dry conditions also expected for the CWA, portions along and 
west of KS-27 may see some possible elevated fire weather 
conditions in the afternoon with minimum RH values in the upper 
teens. However, the aforementioned light winds in the afternoon
should the limit fire weather potential at this time. Daytime 
highs for today are forecast to be between the middle and upper 
80s followed by overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Going into Tuesday, models forecast the aforementioned upper air low 
moving over the IA/IL border causing the ridge to take a more 
positive tilt in its orientation as an upper air trough in the 
Pacific Northwest gradually moves eastward into the Northwestern 
CONUS. At the surface, the CWA looks to stay dry for another day 
underneath the ridge with winds turning easterly by the afternoon
as models show a surface low setting up in southeastern CO. Fire 
weather does not look to be a concern on Tuesday with minimum RH 
values at 20% or above are in the forecast. Tuesday's daytime high
temperatures look to be in the lower to upper 80s with overnight 
low temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

On Wednesday, model guidance projects the axis of the ridge moving 
over the CWA as the low progresses over northern IN and the trailing 
upper air trough moving a bit more eastward in the Northwestern 
CONUS. Precipitation chances remain very low for a third day 
underneath the ridge. Breezier winds compared to the previous days 
are expected with portions of eastern CO seeing gusts up to around 
25 kts in the evening with surface low establishing itself in 
southeastern CO once again. Fire weather should not be a concern 
on Wednesday with a better amounts of 850mb moisture entering the
region from the south-southeast. The CWA expects to have daytime 
highs in the lower to middle 80s while seeing overnight lows in 
the upper 40s to middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2023

For the extended period, both the latest GFS and ECMWF continue to 
show the upper ridge that was over the Plains region during the 
midweek period, to shift eastward, forming and Omega block pattern. 
This is going to put a persistent southwest aloft over the area. The 
upper low/trough that enters from the west, will sit over the 
central Rockies, aiding the persistent upcoming wind regime.

At the surface, low pressure sets up over the eastern Rockies ahead 
of the upper low, while a strong dome of high pressure sits over the 
eastern portion of the country. This set up will allow for southerly 
flow and will allow for persistent drying at least until the latter 
half of the upcoming weekend. From Saturday night on through next 
Monday, will be looking for some increased low/mid level moisture to 
feed into the CWA. A weak 700mb shortwave works north along the 
eastern Rocky slopes that may trigger some rw/trw. Some difference 
to the positioning of the surface ridge east that may allow for 
increased areal coverage of low chance pops into most of the CWA, 
but may just be confined to areas west, closest to the surface 
low/boundary.

Despite these concerns, two others are expected to have better 
chances to impact a good portion of the area, Thu-Sun. First off, 
the persistent drying and lack of appreciable moisture/rain will 
increase the fire wx concerns, especially for areas along and west 
of Highway 27. Mid to upper teens for rh, combined with winds close 
to criteria could create elevated to near critical fire wx 
conditions. These may increase based on the drying from the previous 
day.

The second concern will be the potential for blowing dust. Gusty 
winds in the 35-45 mph range are possible for the Thu-Sun timeframe, 
combined with the dry top layer of soil, could create ample blowing 
dust coverage, especially the eastern portion of the cwa. Local 
blowing dust research does show potential for this to occur, and 
will have to be monitored as the week progresses. The potential for 
blowing dust could be very impactful.

For temps, the region will be looking at above normal highs on 
Thursday area-wide with a range from the upper 80s west through the 
mid 90s east. These numbers do trend downward(but remain above 
normal) through the remainder of the extended, with highs by next 
Sunday and Monday ranging mostly in the mid to upper 80s. Lows 
during this time will range widely with lows west of Highway 25 
mainly in the 50s. East of there, mid 50s to mid 60s are expected. 
The overall trend is cooler as the extended progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1054 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Both terminals will have VFR conditions through the forecast 
period as high pressure continues to transition through the 
region. 

Winds for KGLD, light/variable through about 23z, then south- 
southwesterly around 10kts. By 13z Tuesday, a brief period of 
light/variable then shifting northeast.

Winds for KMCK, light/variable conditions will persist through 
about 15z Tuesday, then becoming easterly around 10kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN