204 
FXUS64 KTSA 160518
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1218 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 850 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

Weak mid level troughing will slowly progress eastward across the
forecast area tonight and into tomorrow morning, pushing a weak
wind shift boundary into the area as well. A few very light 
showers/sprinkles currently moving into northeast Oklahoma are 
likely not producing much in the way of measurable rainfall as the
lower levels of the atmosphere remain rather dry this evening. 
Low chances for some sprinkles will continue through the night in 
these areas as several ripples in the flow move around the base of
the large scale trough, but not much in the way of measurable
precipitation is expected through the nighttime hours. Continued 
mid level cloud cover associated with the trough axis will likely
keep temperatures up a few degrees tonight from previous nights 
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with lows 
ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s expected across the area. 
Going forecast is in good shape, with just some minor temperatures
adjustments noted for this forecast update.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

The aforementioned surface boundary will progress through the 
forecast area Saturday, with low rain chances covering much of 
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, mainly in the morning/ 
early afternoon hours. While some thunder is possible, it should 
remain isolated given generally weak instability. As the trough 
continues to shift eastward Saturday night through Sunday, drier 
northwest flow aloft develops and a frontal boundary helps to 
usher in drier air at the surface. Given this, precip chances will
remain minimal Sunday and Monday.

Negative height anomalies will build back into the region Tuesday
into Wednesday with increasing rain and thunder chances areawide.
A significant upper level low then develops along the west coast 
Thursday into Friday with weak ridging developing across the 
plains and SW flow across the rockies. This will encourage the 
formation of lee troughing and increasing southerly winds for our 
area. Chances of daily convection will be possible Thursday and 
Friday under this pattern.

A warming trend can be expected Sunday through Tuesday, with highs 
in the upper 80s or lower 90s possible by Monday and Tuesday 
afternoon. Increasing cloudiness and rain chances will help keep 
temps in the lower to mid 80s for the remainder of the week. 
Temps Saturday and Sunday night may manage to cool well into the 
50s for much of the area, several degrees below average. This is
especially true for the typically colder spots as clear skies and
light winds will enhance radiation cooling. Otherwise, lows will 
generally remain in the 60s through the remainder of the period, 
with some pockets of mid to upper 50s possible. Winds will 
increase the second half of next week, with breezy conditions 
likely during the afternoon hours Tuesday through Friday...especially
across eastern Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

MVFR vsbys will be possible with showers moving through the 
area during the valid period. Otherwise, VFR elements will 
prevail at all sites.   


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  58  85  58 /  30   0   0   0 
FSM   84  61  87  58 /  20  10   0   0 
MLC   84  58  87  56 /  20   0   0   0 
BVO   80  53  84  50 /  30  10   0   0 
FYV   80  53  82  50 /  20  10   0   0 
BYV   78  55  79  52 /  20  10   0   0 
MKO   80  58  84  55 /  20   0   0   0 
MIO   79  55  82  52 /  20  10   0   0 
F10   80  58  84  55 /  30   0   0   0 
HHW   86  61  89  58 /  20  10   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...23