National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDEPZ
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDEPZ
Product Timestamp: 2023-08-26 05:44 UTC
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882 FXUS64 KEPZ 260544 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1144 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 High pressure aloft will move back over the region with slightly drier air overlaying the area. Isolated to scattered storms will still be possible, especially over the mountainous terrain. By the beginning of next week, a frontal boundary will move in from the east and northeast, rain chances will increase as a result. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 High pressure centered over Oklahoma will continue the S/SE low- level flow over the area with above average moisture in place across the Borderland. This will result in another afternoon/evening of scattered mountain and isolated lowland showers and thunderstorms. PW values currently in the 1.3-1.5 range, along with dew point temperatures in the low 60s will result in locally heavy rainfall. Flash flooding potential will remain limited, mainly over the mountains and areas that have seen over the past few days. Temperatures this afternoon will be fairly similar to yesterday, with highs topping out in the mid 90s. For the weekend, upper level high will move westward, focusing over NM/AZ vicinity. Slightly drier air will accompany the upper level high leading to drier conditions across the desert lowlands. However, residual moisture will remain in place over the higher terrain which may lead to isolated/scattered showers/storms through the weekend. High temperatures this weekend increase a degree or two as well. By next week, an upper level trough will move across the Upper Midwest with a cold front diving south across the Great Plains. By Monday evening, the front boundary will stall out, banking up against the eastern slopes of the central NM mountain chain. This will focus the potential for scattered to numerous showers/storms over the Sacramento Mountains. On Tuesday, a secondary push of this boundary will move across the forecast area. As a result, rain chances will increase across the area on Tuesday. There after, drier air will move in from the central plains, likely resulting in decreased rain chances and warming temperatures that could last into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 VFR conditions will be seen overnight as shower activity will continue to diminish over the area. Winds stay northerly AOB 10KT during the overnight hours, but switch southeasterly around 18Z. Mild afternoon breezes will be seen at each terminal outside of thunderstorms where gusty outflow winds will be possible. Moderate to heavy rainfall possible with thunderstorms at KDMN and KTCS. But drier air near KLRU and KELP should help thunderstorms stay more isolated in nature compared to western locations. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Fire weather concerns are low through the period. High pressure to the east will continue the moisture transport across the area through the remainder of Friday. Scattered storms will be possible through this evening, especially over the highest terrain where wetting rain, gusty/erratic outflow winds, and frequent lightning will be possible. Min RHs this afternoon will be 20-35% across the lowlands and 30-50% over the mountains. Temperatures this afternoon will be slightly warmer this afternoon. This weekend, high pressure will move westward focusing over the NM/AZ vicinity. Slightly drier air and slightly warmer temps will follow. However, residual moisture will still be present over the mountains with isolated to scattered showers/storms possible each afternoon. Min RHs will remain fairly stagnant, 20-30% over the lowlands and 30-50% over the mountains. Temperatures each afternoon will be similar to the previous days as well. Fuel-wise, recent rains and abundant moisture will keep fuels fairly moist with ERCs between 0 to 25th percentile. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 97 72 96 / 20 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 87 64 87 / 10 10 0 20 Las Cruces 68 94 68 94 / 30 20 10 10 Alamogordo 67 92 67 91 / 30 30 10 10 Cloudcroft 50 69 51 69 / 30 50 10 50 Truth or Consequences 67 90 67 91 / 40 50 20 20 Silver City 63 87 64 87 / 60 70 30 30 Deming 67 95 67 95 / 40 40 10 10 Lordsburg 67 94 67 94 / 50 50 30 20 West El Paso Metro 73 95 73 94 / 20 10 0 10 Dell City 67 93 68 93 / 10 10 0 10 Fort Hancock 68 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 10 Loma Linda 66 87 67 87 / 20 10 0 20 Fabens 69 94 68 94 / 10 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 70 92 68 93 / 30 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 71 93 72 93 / 30 20 10 10 Jornada Range 68 92 67 93 / 30 30 10 10 Hatch 68 95 67 95 / 30 40 20 20 Columbus 69 95 68 95 / 30 20 10 0 Orogrande 64 90 65 90 / 30 20 0 20 Mayhill 55 82 55 80 / 40 40 10 50 Mescalero 54 80 54 80 / 30 50 10 50 Timberon 54 79 54 77 / 30 30 0 40 Winston 59 81 59 82 / 60 70 30 40 Hillsboro 64 90 64 91 / 50 60 20 30 Spaceport 66 92 65 92 / 40 50 10 20 Lake Roberts 55 85 55 85 / 70 80 40 40 Hurley 65 91 65 92 / 50 60 20 20 Cliff 59 95 59 95 / 60 70 30 40 Mule Creek 62 88 62 89 / 60 70 40 40 Faywood 67 90 66 90 / 40 60 20 20 Animas 67 95 66 95 / 60 50 30 10 Hachita 67 94 66 94 / 50 40 20 10 Antelope Wells 65 93 65 94 / 50 30 10 0 Cloverdale 64 90 64 90 / 40 50 20 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher