737 
FXUS63 KGID 040927
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
427 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Key Messages:

* Patchy dense fog will continue to impact portions of south
  central Nebraska through around 9 AM.

* Weakening thunderstorms across north central Kansas this morning
  will be capable of wind gusts around 40 to 50 mph...with an 
  additional round of potentially severe thunderstorms this 
  evening expected to impact areas primarily west of Highway 281.

* Severe weather will be possible again Saturday afternoon and
  evening...primarily along and ahead of an approaching cold
  front.

* A cooler and breezy finish to the weekend is in store for the
  local area with off and on chances for showers and 
  thunderstorms continuing through at least the middle of next 
  week.

Patchy dense fog developed across much of south central Nebraska
early in the night and is continuing to plague much of the I-80
corridor from roughly highway 281 east. Could see some minor
improvement over the next couple of hours as outflow from storms
to our south and west attempt to mix the lower layers some and
improve visibilities. 08Z HRRR indicates this denser fog will 
likely break up over the next 3-5 hours...and presently have a 
dense fog advisory in effect through 9 AM CDT...although may be 
able to trim some of the edges of this advisory over the next few 
hours if improvement continues. Focusing on the storms to the 
south...models originally tracked a much larger complex of storms 
across the local area capable of producing severe weather early in
the night...but eventually backed off significantly late in the 
night...with just a cluster of mainly non-severe storms now 
bringing some beneficial rainfall to much of north central Kansas.
Expect this activity to continue to weaken as it tracks east 
through the morning hours...with a mostly dry and at least partly 
sunny afternoon anticipated across the local area. With additional
sunshine expected this afternoon...increased forecast 
temperatures by a degree or two across much of the area...although
they still remain slightly below normal for early August.

Later this afternoon and into the early evening hours...models key
in on another disturbance to our west which is forecast to reach
western fringes of the local area during the early evening hours.
With moderate instability and modest shear in place...could see
some severe storms especially early in the evening...and a slight
risk for severe weather now extends across areas mainly west of
Highway 183...with a more marginal risk further east. Some larger
hail will be possible with the initial storms...with the main
threat eventually transitioning to severe thunderstorm wind gusts
as the complex tracks further east during the late evening hours.

One more more day with a significant potential for severe weather
is anticipated on Saturday as temperatures climb and instability
builds ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will
eventually have the potential to trigger a line of severe storms
late in the day and through the early evening hours as it crosses
the local area...and just about the entire area is in a severe
risk for severe weather from the storm prediction center. Given
the timing of the front around and just after peak heating...large
hail and severe wind gusts will both be possible. Thereafter...a
much anticipated cooldown along with breezy northwesterly winds
are expected on Sunday...with a fairly active west northwest flow
pattern aloft likely providing additional chances for showers and
likely non-severe thunderstorms through at least the middle of
next week...along with maintaining below to near normal 
temperatures across the local area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Light BR with MVFR VSBYS is currently being reported at KGRI...and
expect this possibility to continue through the overnight hours as
light east-southeasterly flow and a minimal temperature/dewpoint
spread continues. Looking to the west...expect the line of
thunderstorms to continue to approach both terminals over the next
few hours...bringing at least a VCTS/SHRA at both sites after 
about 04/08-09Z. Continue to think this activity will weaken as it
tracks into a slightly less favorable environment as it reaches 
the terminals...but some strong wind gusts of 30-40KTS will be 
possible...although they were to included in the actual TAFs due
to their uncertainty. TSRA activity should diminish around 
sunrise...with some SHRA activity hanging around through the late 
morning hours...with VFR CIGS returning around midday...before 
another round of showers and thunderstorms reaches the terminals 
during the mid to late evening hours Friday.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-075>077.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi