604 
FXUS64 KMOB 311708
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1208 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

VFR conditions prevail across the forecast area through Tuesday.
A stray shower or storm is possible near the coast as the sea
breeze pushes inland which could produce a temporary reduction in
ceiling and/or visibility. MM/25

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Hot conditions will continue today through Tuesday, but chances for 
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be minimal. 

A slightly drier airmass has filtered into the region in the wake of 
the line of showers and thunderstorms that sagged south across our 
area yesterday, and a frontal boundary sagging into the area from 
the north today will allow for slightly lower dewpoints than 
previously expected to persist today and likely into Tuesday as 
well. Daytime highs both today and Tuesday will still be quite hot, 
mainly in the mid to upper 90s over most of the area each day, 
except for low to mid 90s along the immediate coast. We have been 
undercutting the dewpoint temperatures in the forecast for the past 
several days as guidance has been running high on those, however it 
appears now that they could be even slightly lower than what we 
have previously been expecting (down into the middle 60s today for 
interior south central AL). PWAT's today, for the most part now 
generally expected to be in the 1.2 to 1.4 inch range across the 
area. 

Even though high temperatures today will still be very hot, due to 
the lower moisture content of the airmass, heat indices are now 
expected to range from about 98 to 104 degrees this afternoon. Since 
these heat indices are now expected to be below 108 degrees, the 
Heat Advisory for today has been cancelled for most interior areas 
of southwest and south central AL. We will maintain the Heat 
Advisory for all of our southeast MS counties, as well as a part of 
southwest AL and all of the western FL panhandle for today (although 
even there heat index values look to be only borderline). For the 
areas that continue to be under the Advisory, expect heat index 
values to top out in the 103 to 110 range today. The immediate coast 
could see a brief spike up closer to 110 late this afternoon as the 
sea breeze boundary moves inland. There is the potential for 
afternoon dewpoints to mix out even more than forecasted that would 
result in lower heat indices over the forecast area, although 
confidence decreases with coastal and southwestward extent of the 
forecast area. Dewpoints over interior locations may be even lower 
on Tuesday (possibly low to mid 60s), so it no longer looks like a 
Heat Advisory will be required for tomorrow.

Otherwise, with the drier air in place, only looking for isolated 
showers and storms this afternoon, and mainly over our southern area 
where moisture will be slightly higher and low level sea breeze 
forcing will be present. Any showers and storms that do develop this 
afternoon will end by early evening. It looks like most of the area 
will be rainfree tomorrow, so for now we will not carry any PoPs for 
Tuesday. /12  



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  98  77  97  78  95  77  94 /   0  10   0  30   0  40  20  40 
Pensacola   77  99  80  95  79  93  79  94 /   0  10  10  30  10  50  20  40 
Destin      80  96  81  93  81  90  79  91 /   0  10  10  30  10  40  20  40 
Evergreen   71  97  71  97  74  94  75  93 /   0   0   0  20  10  50  20  50 
Waynesboro  72  96  73  98  75  98  74  94 /   0   0   0  10  10  40  20  30 
Camden      72  95  71  95  75  93  74  91 /   0   0   0  10  10  50  20  40 
Crestview   71  98  73  98  76  94  75  94 /   0  10   0  30  10  50  20  50 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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