841 
FXUS61 KBGM 072001
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
401 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms with a cold front will exit
to the east late this afternoon and evening. The cold front 
will stall out and bring another chance for showers and 
thunderstorms Saturday, mainly east of I-81. More showers and
thunderstorms are likely Sunday with a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
230 pm update...

Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms moving through now
with and ahead of a slow moving cold front. Potential for flash
flooding with training and slow moving storms. High pwats, light
low and mid winds, and a wet ground. A few thunderstorms have
also been severe due to wind damage. The NAM was closer to the
strong instability of easily over 1k cape. Shear was higher than
expected at 30 kts. Late this afternoon and evening the 
convection will move out with the front. 

Tonight skies will slowly clear. With calm to light winds valley
fog is likely. Rainfall today will help with added low level
moisture despite the weak dry advection. Low temperatures will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s in CNY to 60s in NEPA. 

The cold front stalls just to the southeast so convection is 
again possible in the Catskills, Wyoming Valley and Poconos 
Saturday afternoon into the evening. Late Saturday night showers
come in from the west ahead of the next cold front. Highs
Saturday in the 80s. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Forecast...

A frontal boundary moving through the region during Sunday
afternoon will bring scattered thunderstorms and heavy rain to
the region.

An upper level trough moving into the region from the Great
Lakes will tilt negatively late Sunday morning. This will shift
the flow from SW to S and advect in high PWATs to the region.
Morning values from 1.25 to 1.5 will increase to 1.75 to 2in
during the afternoon hours. A mid-level shortwave combined with
a surface low will move into the region, generating
thunderstorms that will produce heavy rain across the area.
Guidance has pushed the heaviest rain east of our area, with the
Catskills now seeing the highest amounts, with 2-3 inches
expected thanks to an orographic enhancement from southerly
flow. The severe threat for the day will be dependent on if we
can get some clearing during the morning hours ahead of the
approaching cold front. Guidance is unsure if this will occur,
with several models showing widely different values for CAPE.
0-6km shear values range from 30-45kts during the afternoon,
allowing for storms to become organized and generate long lived
heavy rain showers. Flash flooding will be possible across areas
that see prolonged heavy rain, multiple rounds of heavy rain or
areas that are flood prone. Later Sunday afternoon into the
evening currently looks to be the prime timeframe for heavy
rain and flash flooding chances.

All of these factors together have allowed the WPC to place our
region in a slight risk for excessive rainfall and SPC to place
NEPA in a marginal risk for severe storms. Flash flooding is 
currently expected to be the main threat for Sunday, but given 
the uncertainty with instability, severe storm chances will have
to be monitored as the event approaches. 

The front is currently progged to stall out east of our CWA as
the mid-level shortwave lifts north but the upper level trough
is still slightly negatively tilted over the area. This will 
allow for some lingering showers to remain east of I-81 through
Sunday night into Monday morning. Another shortwave pushing
through from the south Monday afternoon will bring a chance for
rain showers and thunderstorms to the region. Since we will be
behind the front, PWATs will be significantly less, only between
1-1.25in. This will keep showers that do form during the
afternoon light and scattered.

High pressure will build into the region Monday night as the
upper level trough exits to the NE, bringing dry conditions. 

Temps during this period will be warm and muggy. Sunday will see
highs in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s. Highs here could be warmer if we can see some clearing 
during the morning hours. Sunday night will be muggy with lows
in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday will be muggy once again with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Monday night will be a little
cooler with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM Forecast...

High pressure will control the weather pattern through mid-
week, keeping conditions mostly dry outside of a slight chance 
for diurnal showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temps will be 
hot with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s across 
the area. Active weather returns to the area Thursday and Friday
as another system moves into the region from the Great Lakes. 

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
145 pm update...

A cold front is pushing across the area now with widespread 
showers and scattered thunderstorms. Included TEMPO groups for 
thunder at most sites. Visibility could fall to IFR due to heavy
rain. Ceilings could fall to MVFR. Threat from restrictions
ending from northwest to southeast from 21z to 23z. 

Potential for fog overnight at all sites due to the rain now
followed by clearing skies and calm winds tonight. Best chance
of valley fog late tonight at ELM falling at times to IFR. ITH 
could also have MVFR fog. 

Winds are light throughout. Generally northwest at 5 kts this
afternoon. Light and variable to calm tonight. West wind at 5
kts Friday. 

Outlook... 

Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening...Mainly VFR. Rain 
showers and scattered thunderstorms possible AVP. east.

Saturday overnight through Sunday night...System brings a 
renewed higher chance for thunderstorms; some with torrential 
downpours.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR expected, but still a 
chance for mainly afternoon and evening scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPH/TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...TAC