151 
FXUS61 KPHI 252309
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
709 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle over the Great Lakes and the 
northeastern states through Saturday. The high is expected to 
weaken gradually during the period from Sunday through Monday as
broad low pressure drifts north and eastward from the 
southeastern states. High pressure is then expected to re- 
strengthen during the mid-week next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mid level low was centered over New Brunswick, Canada this 
evening and it is expected to drift eastward. We should remain 
under the cyclonic flow associated with the system into Friday 
when a mid level ridge is expected to push eastward from the 
Great Lakes. Surface high pressure is anticipated to be located 
in the Great Lakes Region tonight and Friday and it will bring 
us dry weather conditions.

A light northerly breeze will continue for the evening with the
exception of areas near the NJ coast, where a sea-breeze
continues to progress inland this evening. Later tonight, the 
wind should go light and variable tonight at most locations. A 
northeast wind 5 to 10 MPH is forecast to redevelop on Friday 
morning, with the sea breeze front again working its way inland 
during the afternoon.

Lows tonight should favor the 40s. Highs on Friday are expected
to range from the upper 60s to the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The drying trend in the forecast for the weekend continues as 
confidence increases that strong high pressure will largely keep
showers associated with a low pressure system at bay. PoPs 
through daytime Saturday have been reduced to less than 15 
percent across the whole region. High pressure does begin to 
weaken which may allow showers to progress slightly further 
north by Saturday night into Sunday. Therefore, 15 to 35 percent
PoPs remain in the forecast for Delmarva and South Jersey for 
Saturday night through Sunday.

Otherwise, high temperatures Saturday and Sunday are expected 
to be in the mid to upper 70s across most of the region. The 
coolest temperatures will be found along the coasts of New 
Jersey and Delaware where highs will top out in the upper 60s to
low 70s as the result of easterly winds off the still 
relatively cool ocean waters. Low temperatures Friday night and 
Saturday night are forecast to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Not much has changed in the long term forecast. Overall, the 
forecast is expected to remain mostly dry, particularly for 
areas north of Delmarva and southern New Jersey. PoPs around 
15-35 percent remain through Tuesday as the mid-level low 
continues to progress eastward south of the region.

A warming trend still looks to be on tap with temperatures gradually 
rising through most of the week as mid-level ridging re- 
strengthens. The exception will be on Tuesday when it looks like
the mid-level low passes far enough east to allow a backdoor 
front to approach from the northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, 
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR under a mostly clear sky. Northerly winds in the
Lehigh Valley and east/northeast winds in South Jersey and the
I-95 corridor will go light and variable over the next few
hours, 5 kt or less. High confidence.

Friday...VFR under a mostly clear sky. Northeast wind 5 to 10 
knots, becoming east to southeast in the afternoon and early 
evening with the arrival of the sea breeze front as far inland 
as the Interstate 95 Corridor. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night...VFR. Light and variable 
winds become easterly around 5 to 10 knots during the day on 
Saturday. Winds decrease again to around 5 knots or less 
Saturday night. High confidence.

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Easterly winds around 5 to
10 knots. High confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
A northeast wind 10 to 15 knots will continue to veer toward 
the east and southeast at 5 to 10 knots into this evening. The 
northeast wind is forecast to re-establish itself overnight, 
increasing to 10 to 15 knots. There should be a trend for the 
wind to veer again toward the east and southeast at 5 to 10 
knots during the afternoon hours on Friday.

Wave heights are expected to diminish gradually. We will keep 
the ending time for the Small Craft Advisory for our ocean 
waters to the south of Manasquan Inlet at 6:00 AM Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night...Marine headlines unlikely. Waves mainly 2-4 feet
but waves as high as 5 feet possible, particularly south of 
Cape Henlopen. East-northeast winds 10-15 knots. 

Saturday through Sunday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible, particularly south of Little Egg Inlet. Seas increase
to 4- 6 feet in this area, though remaining around 3-5 feet 
further north. East-northeast winds around 10-15 knots. Gusts 
around 25 knots possible Saturday afternoon, south of Cape May. 

Monday through Tuesday...Marine headlines unlikely. Seas 
decrease to 2 to 4 feet. Northeast winds around 10 to 15 knots.

Rip Currents...

Into this evening, there is a HIGH risk for the development of 
dangerous rip currents for both the New Jersey and Delaware 
beaches. North to northeast winds 10-15 mph will become 
easterly. Waves in the surf zone are forecast to be 3-5 feet 
coupled with a stronger easterly swell with a longer period of 
8-9 seconds.

For Friday, there is MODERATE risk for the development of 
dangerous rip currents for both the New Jersey and Delaware 
beaches. A lighter easterly wind along with waves/swells lower 
than today should result in a overall reduced rip current risk.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AKL
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich/Iovino
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL
AVIATION...AKL/Hoeflich/Iovino
MARINE...AKL/Hoeflich/Iovino