322 
FXUS63 KTOP 271651
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1051 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Forecast Highlights:

-A weekend cold front brings in a frigid air mass and wind chills 
below zero.

-Precipitation chances remain low with just a few slight chances in 
the forecast currently.

Forecast Discussion:

At 09Z today, water vapor imagery shows a trough axis associated 
with a system centered over northern MN moving over northeastern KS. 
Increased cloud cover and perhaps some flurries have been associated 
with the trough, which is quickly moving east very early today. 
Clouds will clear and temperatures will warm into the 40's today, 
likely making today the warmest of the next seven.

Significant changes to our temperature forecast occur this weekend 
as a surface low and cold front move through the area tomorrow. Have 
sped up timing of the front and CAA onset with this package based on 
guidance from short-term high resolution models. PV induced wintry 
precipitation is currently expected to remain north of the CWA, 
mainly impacting Nebraska and Iowa tomorrow. So have kept POPs 
less than 15 percent across northern KS. A steady decline in 
temperatures will occur from Saturday afternoon through Sunday 
morning with lows dipping into the single digits in far northern 
KS and into the teens elsewhere. Breezy conditions will cause wind
chills to fall below zero area-wide early Sunday with some 
locations across far northern KS approaching advisory criteria.

The very chilly air mass sticks around into early next week with 
highs struggling to exceed freezing until midweek. Have gone with 
slight chance POPs from our NBM next Tuesday, but deterministic 
models are not in great agreement with the placement of an upper 
level shortwave trough and associated precipitation. At least a
few models hint at precipitation expanding northward from TX 
ahead of a cut-off low near the CA/AZ state border and a trough 
moving through western sections of the Midwest. If precip develops
as suggested by some models, temperatures will support snow at 
that time. Slightly warmer weather should return late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday) 
Issued at 1051 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

VFR conditions should persist through the forecast period. Models
show IFR stratus behind the FROPA on Saturday, but this appears 
to occur around or shortly after 18Z Saturday. Otherwise a 
relatively dry airmass will preclude any chances for precip in 
spite of the forcing passing through the region. Forecast 
soundings are showing an increasing low level jet late tonight 
while winds in the KS river valley remain light and backed to the 
southeast. So will include a mention of LLWS for TOP and MHK where
the sfc winds are more likely to remain backed. Some mixing at 
FOE may limit chances for LLWS. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Wolters