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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTSA Received: 2022-12-10 02:48 UTC
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960 FXUS64 KTSA 100248 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 848 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 848 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 Widespread rain showers with embedded thunderstorms, currently over north-central Oklahoma will spread into NE OK/NW AR this evening/overnight as mid level short wave traverses the region. Low level moisture will continue to surge north in low level jet axis/strong WAA regime with PWAT climbing into the 1.25-1.50 inch range which is 3 standard deviations from normal. Latest trends/model guidance suggest a few narrow bands of 1 to 1.5 inch rainfall totals along/north of highway 412 before precipitation shifts to east by mid day Saturday. Update out shortly, mainly for precip timing and hourly temp/dew-point trends. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Friday) Issued at 211 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 Widespread showers and isolated/scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday morning with the activity spreading southeastward during the day as a cold front associated with a northern stream system moving into the upper mid-west moves into the area. The chances of showers and storms will linger into Saturday night across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas as a southern stream system embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft moves through the area. Sunday looks to be dry with high pressure builds across the region. Still looking at an active period beginning Monday night and continuing through Tuesday evening as a potent upper level low moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains. Elevated showers and storms are likely to develop across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Monday evening/ Monday night in a zone of strong isentropic lift across the region. As the Pacific cold front associated with the upper level low moves into Eastern Oklahoma Tuesday morning, elevated storms will likely begin to develop in the vicinity of the boundary and continue to spread east near the boundary during the day Tuesday. There will be enough elevated instability and deep layer sheer that any of these storms could become strong to severe with large hail the main concern. As storms spread into southeast Oklahoma and into west-central Arkansas later Tuesday morning and afternoon, some of these storms could become surface based and pose more of a wind and even a tornado threat. Drier and colder conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday as high pressure builds behind the departing storms system. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 514 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 VFR cigs will continue to lower this evening and fall to MVFR/IFR categories later tonight, along with MVFR/IFR vsbys in RA/TSRA as coverage increases from west to east. IFR/LIFR cigs and MVFR vsbys in light fog will persist despite rain ending later in the period. Cigs lifting to MVFR levels and VFR vsbys is expected across the NE OK sites after 18z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 45 53 41 56 / 100 60 10 0 FSM 51 57 49 59 / 80 100 40 10 MLC 50 58 47 57 / 80 90 40 0 BVO 41 53 36 54 / 100 30 0 0 FYV 44 56 42 59 / 90 90 20 0 BYV 43 52 43 54 / 90 100 20 0 MKO 47 54 44 56 / 100 90 20 0 MIO 41 52 39 55 / 100 70 10 0 F10 46 54 43 56 / 100 80 20 0 HHW 57 64 51 59 / 50 90 70 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...23