958 
FXUS61 KBGM 071916
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
316 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east of the area tonight. However, some 
clouds and light showers look to linger into Saturday. High pressure 
builds into the region early next week before a cold front comes 
through toward the end of next week with some shower chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will continue to move east of the region tonight. 
Behind the front, northwest flow will continue to advect some 
moisture off of Lake Ontario into central New York. As a result, 
clouds will remain with a few light rain showers as well. Even 
though temperatures fall into the mid and upper 30's for some spots 
clouds and northwest winds should prevent frost. Conditions should 
clear out gradually in NE PA tonight. 

On Saturday, residual lake effect clouds will still be slow to 
totally clear out but should gradually do so by the afternoon with 
high pressure building into the area. A few 20 mph northwest wind 
gusts can not be ruled out through Saturday after reviewing model 
soundings. A little higher frost concern Saturday night with clearer 
skies and slightly lighter winds compared to tonight. Low 
temperatures should end up around 40 in the Finger Lakes with mid 
and upper 30's elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 pm update...
An upper level trough will persist through the short term with 
cool NW flow. 850 mb temperatures will be right around 0C so 
there will be enough of a temperature difference between the 
Great Lakes water temperature and 850 for some weak lake induced
instability. Chances of precipitation were kept across the 
Finger Lakes region into western CNY Sunday into Monday. A 500 
mb shortwave passes through the region late Sunday night into 
Monday that may enhance the lake effect precipitation for a few 
hours but timing is still uncertain. Once that shortwave is 
through later in the day on Monday into monday night, the low 
level flow becomes more westerly with warmer air starting to 
advect in and conditions become unfavorable for lake effect 
precipitation. 


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
315 pm update...
The long term is looking mostly dry with temperatures around to
just above average. Towards the end of the week into next 
weekend, precipitation chances return as a potent upper level 
trough digs into the upper Mid west. Ensembles and deterministic
models have trended towards a more negatively tilted trough 
that is moving slower east. Another factor in the set up will be
where the remnants of tropical storm Julia goes. With more 
models trending towards the Gulf of Mexico, there is a chance 
that the deeper tropical moisture could be picked up with higher
PWATs advecting in ahead of the trough. QPF amounts vary 
greatly still with the uncertainty but some ensemble members do 
show an inch plus of precipitation late next week into the 
weekend and will be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
One period of MVFR to IFR clouds will gradually scatter out by
mid afternoon. However, ceilings should reform at all sites but
KAVP tonight. Indications are for these ceilings could be 
around the 3,000 foot threshold. The highest chances for MVFR 
ceilings overnight are at KITH and KBGM with lower chances at 
other sites. The fog possibility for KELM around sunrise has 
decreased some based on some expected wind tonight. However, 
maintained a TEMPO with some uncertainty still present. Any 
ceilings should lift and scatter by late morning Saturday. 
Fairly steady northwest winds around 10 knots with a few 20 knot
gusts throughout the TAF period. 

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG/TAC
AVIATION...BJG