164 
FXUS61 KBGM 071848
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
248 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will move east of the area tonight. However, some 
clouds and light showers look to linger into Saturday. High pressure 
builds into the region early next week before a cold front comes 
through toward the end of next week with some shower chances. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

A cold front will continue to move east of the region tonight. 
Behind the front, northwest flow will continue to advect some 
moisture off of Lake Ontario into central New York. As a result, 
clouds will remain with a few light rain showers as well. Even 
though temperatures fall into the mid and upper 30's for some spots 
clouds and northwest winds should prevent frost. Conditions should 
clear out gradually in NE PA tonight. 

On Saturday, residual lake effect clouds will still be slow to 
totally clear out but should gradually do so by the afternoon with 
high pressure building into the area. A few 20 mph northwest wind 
gusts can not be ruled out through Saturday after reviewing model 
soundings. A little higher frost concern Saturday night with clearer 
skies and slightly lighter winds compared to tonight. Low 
temperatures should end up around 40 in the Finger Lakes with mid 
and upper 30's elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 am update...

Saturday night into Sunday a southwest flow will keep most of
the lake effect showers north of our area. Northern Oneida may
get a few showers but that is all. Saturday night could be the
coldest night this week. Lows mostly mid and upper 30s. A
southwest wind at 5 to 10 mph could keep the frost from forming.
Sunday will be warmer than Saturday with high from the mid 50s
to lower 60s. 

Late Sunday into Sunday night low level winds shift to northwest
bringing in colder air and a weak cold front. Some showers are
possible mostly in central NY that will last into Monday
morning. There will some synoptic forcing combined with lake
enhancement as 850mb temperatures fall to around 0C. 

Sunday night low temperatures will be from the mid 30s to the 
lower 40s. Frost is possible with light winds. Monday highs will
be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s again but a degree or two
warmer than Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 am update...

Overall, a rather quiet period of weather is expected during 
this period with high pressure in control into Wednesday. The
models then have a strong cold front moving through the area
Thursday or Thursday night with rain. Moisture will be pulled
northeast into our area from the Gulf of Mexico. This is ahead 
of a large upper level trough over the western Great Lakes. 

With high pressure to our south over the middle Atlantic states
Monday to Wednesday there will be a slow warming trend. Highs 
peak in the 60s Wednesday but this could continue into Thursday
with a slower frontal passage. Lows Monday night from the mid 
30s to the lower 40s rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s 
Wednesday night. Monday night could again have some patchy 
frost.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
One period of MVFR to IFR clouds will gradually scatter out by
mid afternoon. However, ceilings should reform at all sites but
KAVP tonight. Indications are for these ceilings could be 
around the 3,000 foot threshold. The highest chances for MVFR 
ceilings overnight are at KITH and KBGM with lower chances at 
other sites. The fog possibility for KELM around sunrise has 
decreased some based on some expected wind tonight. However, 
maintained a TEMPO with some uncertainty still present. Any 
ceilings should lift and scatter by late morning Saturday. 
Fairly steady northwest winds around 10 knots with a few 20 knot
gusts throughout the TAF period. 

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG 
SHORT TERM...TAC 
LONG TERM...TAC 
AVIATION...BJG