768 
FXUS61 KOKX 070959
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
559 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes through late today, followed by gradually 
building high pressure from the west and southwest for the weekend.
High pressure builds in for Monday and Tuesday, then moves off shore
Wednesday. A cold front moves into the region Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
With the majority of cloud cover moving to the north, this
allows for a few isolated pockets of patchy fog early this
morning where temperatures can cool down enough. Otherwise
mostly clear skies develop with light winds to start.

In the wake of a shortwave look for dry conditions for today and a 
good deal of sunshine. A southwest flow preceding a cold front 
ushers in above normal temps across the area today, with most max 
temps reaching the lower and middle 70s. The cold front will arrive 
late in the afternoon and early evening, towards 21-23z or so for 
the city. Have kept PoPs minimal through the late afternoon.

By the evening some mid level clouds will work in from the west and 
southwest. A shortwave begins to approach from the west, along with 
some upper level jet dynamics with a 120 kt jet moving in later at 
night. Have introduced slight chance and low end chance PoPs for 
most of the area, the exception is for far NW areas where the 
current thinking has minimal PoPs. A few hundredths of an inch of 
rain is possible later tonight and into early Saturday and mainly 
for the eastern half of the area as a shortwave embedded in the long 
wave trough slides through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Clouds should quickly exit from west to east on Saturday as the weak 
wave of low pressure along the cold front gets offshore. A few 
showers are possible very early out east, but clearing skies should 
work in by the late morning. Another embedded shortwave slides 
through during the afternoon but will not have any moisture to work 
with. Look for quick clearing Saturday morning with some strat-cu 
possible into the afternoon with a bit of a cold pool remaining 
aloft. The big chance will be the turn to more fall like 
temperatures with afternoon maxes struggling to get to 60, and 
likely remaining in the upper half of the 50s for a good portion of 
the area. A northwest breeze will be noticeable at times keeping it 
rather fall like.

By Saturday night the breeze diminishes with high pressure settling 
in enough to allow the winds lighten. With mainly clear skies 
temperatures will drop later at night across the rural locations. 
This may allow some patchy frost to form in far northern areas. At 
this time temperatures aren't expect to cool enough to allow for 
widespread frost. Lows will be mainly in the upper 30s well inland, 
to the 40s along the immediate coast. Thus, it appears Saturday 
night will be the coolest night across much of the area so far this 
fall.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A large scale upper trough will remain across eastern Canada and the 
eastern United States Sunday night into Monday, and then move to the 
east as an upper ridge builds to the west. The ridge moves through 
Tuesday and Tuesday night as a more amplified upper rough approaches 
through Thursday.

A weak cold front will be passing well to the north and east of the 
region Sunday night, and little moisture will be accompanying the 
passage. High pressure builds in Monday and Tuesday. A stronger cold 
front will be approaching for Thursday with a chance of showers. 
There is some instability and CAPE and an isolated thunderstorm can 
not be ruled out. However, the timing of the front is uncertain.

Used the NBM guidance for temperatures and precipitation 
probabilities through the extended forecast. Temperatures will be 
slightly below normal Sunday night in the wake of a cold front, then 
return to near seasonal normals for the early portion of the week, 
and then above normal mid week ahead of the strong cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds offshore overnight as a cold front 
approaches. The front moves through this afternoon into the early 
evening. High pressure builds in behind the front tonight.

VFR. Patchy fog is likely outside the NYC terminals, and included a 
tempo at KBDR, KISP, and KGON for mainly MVFR fog. However, LIFR 
conditions are possible at KISP and KGON.

Winds light and variable to light SW overnight, become SW 5 to 10 kt 
in the morning, and increase to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts 
15-20kt develop ahead of the cold front in the afternoon and 
continue in the NW flow following the cold frontal passage late 
afternoon/early evening. A few gusts may reach just over 20 kt. 
Gusts will end after 03Z Saturday, though there is some uncertainty 
with the end time.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Late Friday night through Saturday...VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt. 
.Sunday...VFR. W winds G15-20kt.
.Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
More of a SW flow develops today preceding an approaching cold 
front. Just ahead of the front by late in the afternoon gusts out on 
the eastern ocean start to approach 20 kts, but sub SCA conditions 
should prevail through the day. By Friday night out on the ocean and 
the eastern non-ocean waters gusts potentially approach 20 kts with 
perhaps a few pockets of marginal small craft conditions on a NW 
wind. By Saturday ocean seas should settle in around 3 ft with NW 
winds gusting to 15 to 20 kt at times.

Another period of marginal small craft conditions is more likely 
towards Sunday afternoon, with conditions subsiding late Sunday
night as the pressure gradient lightens. Sub small craft conditions
continue into Monday and Tuesday as high pressure dominates.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrological impacts are anticipated through the forecast 
period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET