National Weather Service Raw Text Product

967 
FXUS64 KFWD 010421
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1121 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Weekend/

An deep latitudinal, albeit relatively weak upper ridge will 
remain right on top of the Southern Plains and nation's Heartland 
through the weekend. Very little fluctuation or movement of the 
ridge is expected the next 48 hours, as this feature will be 
sandwiched between fairly deep troughs over the Mid-Atlantic 
Seaboard (pretty much Ian's extratropical remnants) and a closed 
northern Rockies/Plains upper low. A broad and stout surface ridge
emanating from the eastern provinces of Canada into the Southern 
Plains/Ozarks will also remain steady-state and keep a dry and 
near seasonal airmass across North-Central TX. 

The GoM will remain shut down with the main weather feature of 
concern being continued, or even increasing drought conditions and
fire weather concerns as noted by the uptick of fires this past 
week. Fortunately, wind speeds are expected to remain relatively 
light at 10 mph or less from the east or southeast throughout the 
weekend. The mostly clear conditions and dry airmass will result 
in prime radiative cooling each morning with lows in the 50s, with
even a few readings across protective wooded areas of East Texas 
possible falling briefly into the upper 40s each morning just 
before sunrise. Each day will see a large diurnal range in warm up
within the dry airmass, as highs easily surge back up into the 
80s, with a few readings across the Big Country possibly reaching 
the 90 degree mark. 

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022/
/Saturday Night through Friday/

The weather pattern over the latter half of the weekend through
next week will continue to feature rain free conditions with
mostly clear skies and low humidity. This will support a fairly
wide diurnal temperature range with highs in the mid/upper 80s and
early morning lows in the 50s through the week. The remnants of
Ian will remain well to our east, while weak mid level ridging
will remain in place across the Southern Plains. A plume of very
dry air currently on the back side of Ian will steadily creep 
into the Southern Plains over the weekend as broad northeast flow
above the surface persists. This dry air, combined with
temperatures in the 80s and the lack of any substantial rainfall
over the last few weeks, will continue to support above normal
grassfire activity across the region. Afternoon humidity will 
drop to between 15-25% each day over the next week. Despite 
generally light winds, sporadic fire starts will be common.

High level moisture from landfalling Tropical Storm Orlene in
central Mexico will spread into North Texas late Sunday into
Monday. This will be mainly in the form of high cloud cover and
should quickly move east by Monday night. Otherwise, an amplifying
ridge over the western U.S. toward the latter part of next week
should result in northwest flow through the Plains and will send a
cold front into North Texas by Friday. It still looks like
moisture will be very limited at this time with only a few degrees
being shaved off of afternoon high temperatures.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

No concerns are anticipated this weekend across the D10 airspace
and across Central Texas, as a VFR forecast with primarily E winds
10 kts or less expected, with winds at times become light n'
variable nocturnally during the prime decoupling hours. 

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    56  83  58  84  58 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                51  85  53  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               49  82  51  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              51  83  53  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            50  83  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              56  83  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             50  82  52  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           52  83  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              52  85  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       52  85  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$