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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2022-09-30 23:35 UTC
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280 FXUS64 KFWD 302335 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 635 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Sunday Morning/ Quiet conditions are expected over the short term forecast period in response to continued ridging aloft and overall easterly flow. Lower moisture, clear skies, and lighter winds will allow for another bout of steep diurnal temperature variation during the day and efficient radiational cooling at night. Morning lows are forecast to dip down into the 50s, though some spots in both East Texas and Eastern Central Texas should see the upper 40s on Saturday morning. The afternoon hours on Saturday will be warm, with high temperatures peaking in the 80s. These temperatures are at or a couple degrees below typical of this time of year, with DFW and Waco having an October 1st normal climatological temperature of 84 and 86, respectively. Easterly surface winds will persist, with exception to periods of light and variable winds in the early morning hours both Saturday and Sunday. Low afternoon humidity and persisting drought conditions will allow for continued elevated fire weather concerns over the short term period, especially out west where afternoon humidity is lower and a higher abundance of cured fuels are located. However, lower wind speeds around 10 mph or less will help to mitigate rapid spread and growth. Regardless, continue to practice fire safety and keep up to date with the current forecast and outdoor conditions. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 327 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022/ /Saturday Night through Friday/ The weather pattern over the latter half of the weekend through next week will continue to feature rain free conditions with mostly clear skies and low humidity. This will support a fairly wide diurnal temperature range with highs in the mid/upper 80s and early morning lows in the 50s through the week. The remnants of Ian will remain well to our east, while weak mid level ridging will remain in place across the Southern Plains. A plume of very dry air currently on the back side of Ian will steadily creep into the Southern Plains over the weekend as broad northeast flow above the surface persists. This dry air, combined with temperatures in the 80s and the lack of any substantial rainfall over the last few weeks, will continue to support above normal grassfire activity across the region. Afternoon humidity will drop to between 15-25% each day over the next week. Despite generally light winds, sporadic fire starts will be common. High level moisture from landfalling Tropical Storm Orlene in central Mexico will spread into North Texas late Sunday into Monday. This will be mainly in the form of high cloud cover and should quickly move east by Monday night. Otherwise, an amplifying ridge over the western U.S. toward the latter part of next week should result in northwest flow through the Plains and will send a cold front into North Texas by Friday. It still looks like moisture will be very limited at this time with only a few degrees being shaved off of afternoon high temperatures. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR will persist through the end of the period at all TAF sites. Easterly to southeasterly flow with speeds around 6 kts or less will continue over the next 24-30 hours. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 56 83 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 51 86 53 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 49 81 52 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 50 83 52 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 49 82 51 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 57 82 59 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 51 81 52 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 52 83 54 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 52 86 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 51 86 52 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$