261 
FXUS64 KAMA 251129
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

For today, slightly cooler temperatures are in store for the OK
and TX Panhandles in the wake of the most recent weak cold frontal
passage. Surface high pressure will build into the region today
and will result in an increase in north to northeast winds this
morning into early this afternoon, becoming gusty at times given 
the progged pressure gradient associated with the surface high. 
Based on the above, have raised surface winds a little over the NBM
90th percentile values across the higher terrain of the western, 
southwestern, and south central counties closer to the MAVMOS and 
LAVMOS guidance values. Winds will diminish areawide during the
mid to late afternoon hours as the pressure gradient relaxes.

For Monday, the surface high pressure will move off to the east 
of the area, allowing weak return southerly flow to commence. At 
upper levels, an amplified ridge of high pressure over the 
Intermountain West coupled with a deepening trof across the 
eastern states will result in dry northwest flow today through 
Monday night. Short range models are in agreement with the overall
upper level and surface patterns and were accepted. NBM pops and
temperatures fit the above scenario and were incorporated into 
the grids today through Monday night.

02 

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Overview:
The long term remains uneventful as we are looking at seasonable 
temperatures and dry conditions. We may see breezy wind speeds 
(15-25mph) towards the end of the forecast, and currently Thursday
will have the strongest speeds where much of the northwest half 
could see 20-25 mph sustained speeds. Otherwise, it doesn't look 
like too much cloud cover through this stretch. 

Further Details:
By Tuesday, broad cyclonic flow will be noted over the eastern
CONUS, while the Panhandles will be under high pressure aloft.
This H5 high will become more centered over the area as the week
progresses. We will start to see some change in the upper level
pattern as Tropical Storm Ian makes its way over the eastern
CONUS. That said, pattern overall is unfavorable for us to see any
precipitation at this time. In fact, we may not have too much
cloud cover overall on most days through the extended forecast. 

On Thursday, as the TS Ian comes onshore, the pattern aloft may
become more zonal and cross barrier to the Rockies. Models are
indicating a lee low could form over eastern parts of Colorado
resulting in a strong pressure gradient over the northwest third
to half of the forecast area. This may lead to breezy sustained
winds around 25 mph.  

Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

For the 12Z TAFs, north to northeast winds will increase and 
become gusty at times this morning into the early afternoon hours 
before diminishing late this afternoon as surface high pressure
builds southward into the region. Otherwise, VFR conditions are 
expected to prevail at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA through 12Z Monday.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                83  53  83  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Beaver OK                  82  51  85  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Boise City OK              78  49  84  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Borger TX                  85  56  86  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Boys Ranch TX              83  53  85  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Canyon TX                  84  53  83  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Clarendon TX               85  55  83  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Dalhart TX                 80  49  83  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Guymon OK                  81  50  85  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Hereford TX                85  53  85  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Lipscomb TX                83  52  85  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Pampa TX                   83  54  84  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Shamrock TX                86  53  85  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Wellington TX              89  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...02