678 
FXUS63 KMQT 161852
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
252 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Into early evening) 
Issued at 252 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2022

The warm front attached to a low pressure system centered over nw 
MN remains situated across Lake Superior and the Keweenaw this 
afternoon. Water vapor imagery and the RAP analysis show weak 
shortwaves upstream over the Upper MS Valley and Central Plains 
which are poised to lift ne along with frontal boundary later this
afternoon and tonight bringing additional chances for showers to 
the area. Radar imagery shows that showers have already moved into
western Upper Mi early this afternoon and will continue to spread
into central and eastern Upper Mi later this afternoon and 
evening. Another upstream shortwave over the Central Plains will 
bring another round of showers into Upper Mi late this evening and
overnight. MUCAPE of 100-200 j/kg looks pretty minimal for 
t-storms but could maybe support an isolated storm. Highs under 
partly to mostly cloudy skies today have reached into the 70s most
areas, except where persistent fog and low stratus have limited 
heating along Lake Superior in a e-ne flow, mainly over the 
Keweenaw, the nw shoreline of Marquette county and northern Baraga
County. These areas have mostly stayed in the cooler 60s. Patchy 
dense fog over the Keweenaw could lift some in the next few hours 
as showers moving over the area stir up the low-levels.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday) 
Issued at 425 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2022

A quasi-stationary front draped over Lake Superior will be the 
predominant weather feature early in the extended period. Persistent 
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to track through 
Upper Michigan through the weekend in the vicinity of the front. The 
axis of heaviest precipitation remains focused over Lake Superior 
and the Keweenaw where forecast soundings continue to produce 1.5 to 
2 inch PWAT values tonight.  And, with the UP in a warm sector on 
Saturday, temperatures will climb above normal into the upper 
70s/low 80s, supporting mention of thunder.  

After the aforementioned surface low and frontal boundary shift 
eastward late Sunday with the next shortwave, a period of dry 
weather will ensue through Monday as high pressure strengthens over 
the region.  The dry weather will be short-lived, however, as 
another surface low tracks through the forecast area from Monday
night through Wednesday with even stronger forcing from the 
trailing upper closed low on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. In
addition, to the additional rain showers, Wednesday night and 
Thursday could be especially breezy days with northwesterly wind 
gusts in the 15 to 20 mph range. After the brief return to summer 
early in the extended period, look for those Fall like 
temperatures to quickly return in that northwesterly flow on 
Thursday and Friday. Daytime highs on Thursday will struggle to 
top off in the low 60s, and Friday's highs will be even chillier 
in the low to upper 50s.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 118 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2022

Another disturbance wave moving through the area will bring
another wave of showers to the terminals this afternoon into
tonight. VLIFR conditions in fog/low stratus at CMX may improve
briefly to LIFR from 20z-00Z as the main batch of showers moves 
through, but then expect conditions to lower back down to VLIFR
tonight. SAW is improving slowly from VLIFR conditions earlier 
this morning and could reach VFR this afternoon, but then under 
occasional showers will likely lower to IFR or LIFR conditions 
tonight again. VFR conditions at IWD will lower to MVFR or IFR 
later tonight under occasional showers. Expect some improvement to
MVFR conditions at IWD and CMX and to VFR at SAW by late Sat 
morning as main batch of showers exits to the northeast.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 503 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2022

Strong east/northeast winds will impact Lake Superior into tonight 
before gradually veering to the southeast over the eastern half of 
the lake later tonight. Widespread gusts of 20 to 25 kts and even 
some 30 kt gusts can be expected at times.  Wind gusts will fall 
below 20 kts on Saturday where they will remain through Tuesday. 
South/southwest winds on Saturday will briefly become variable 
before settling on a northwesterly component Monday, followed by 
south/southeasterly through Tuesday.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...TDUD