418 
FXUS64 KMAF 172348
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
648 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

As of this forecast issuance, a cold front has entered the N 
Permian Basin and is located along a line extending from HOB-MAF-
ABI. It is not expected to progress much further this afternoon due 
to weak pressure rises behind it. Although it will provide a focus 
for scattered showers and thunderstorms for areas along and N of I-
20. Another source for lift will be the departing upper lvl low over 
N Chihuahua which will bring another round of showers and storms 
to portions of far West TX including the Guadalupe and Davis 
Mountains and adjacent foothills. These areas have seen heavy 
rainfall yesterday, so localized flooding will be of concern again
today, especially with the higher PWATs in place. The 
aforementioned cold front is expected to advance further into the
Basin after sunset, aided by ongoing convection across the TX 
South Plains. Latest high- res guidances shows this area of 
convection moving into SE New Mexico and the N Permian Basin 
overnight into early Thursday. 

By Thursday morning, the cold front will reach the Pecos River 
valley. Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of this 
front with highs topping out in the 80s across the Permian Basin 
and SE New Mexico Thursday afternoon. Rain chances will increase 
throughout the day on Thursday, especially across the Permian Basin, 
so hopefully some areas will finally see some much needed rainfall!
Scattered storms will also be possible again across the higher 
terrain of West TX. Showers and storms may linger into Thursday 
night with lows falling into the U60s/L70s. 

-Salerno 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through  Tuesday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

More active upper pattern Friday with a broad upper trough over the 
eastern half of the country and a deep low over MN.  An upper ridge 
along the Rockies will become centered over W TX/Nrn Mexico Friday 
as a trough over OR moves up the west side of the ridge. A trough 
extending from the deep low will swing across TX on Sunday. The 
region will be between a ridge over the west and a trough over the 
east Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures will be below normal Friday through the middle of next 
week as fronts move into the area Saturday and another one early 
Monday.  Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Lows in the 
60s and 70s.  

Have broken out of the death ridge pattern and will have rain 
chances daily for the end of the week into next week.  Fronts and 
outflow boundaries will become focus for storm development and will 
have upper support on Sunday. Have good moisture with dewpts in the 
60s and even some 70s and MAF 12z sounding had PW over 1 inch.  Will 
have a chance of showers and storms across the area Friday, while on 
Saturday and Sunday the higher elevations will be favored.  On 
Monday the Permian Basin and Davis Mtns will have the best chance of 
rain with rain chances shifting south Tuesday. And on Wednesday the 
best pops will once again be west of the Pecos River so all parts of 
the area will have a shot at getting rain over the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing, with possible
impacts at the start of the period at CNM/MAF, where VCSH/VCTS 
mention have been included, respectively. Confidence is lower at 
other terminals, though will monitor trends and amend as needed 
this evening. Expect CNM/HOB to see the better chance of SHRA
late evening into the overnight hours as a cold front moves into 
the area. SHRA/TSRA chances look to increase after 18Z, 
particularly for PEQ/INK/MAF, though uncertainty in 
timing/location precludes mention at this time. Winds will be 
somewhat variable due to the presence of outflow boundaries, 
though will largely be prevailing southeasterly ahead of the cold 
front, then shift to the N/NE later tonight through the morning 
hours. VFR conditions are expected to continue outside of storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  87  70  89 /  30  50  40  40 
Carlsbad                 69  87  68  88 /  40  30  50  50 
Dryden                   72  91  71  94 /  10  20  20  30 
Fort Stockton            69  91  69  88 /  10  20  20  40 
Guadalupe Pass           65  78  64  80 /  30  30  30  50 
Hobbs                    68  84  66  86 /  50  50  50  40 
Marfa                    58  83  58  82 /  40  40  20  50 
Midland Intl Airport     72  88  70  88 /  40  40  50  40 
Odessa                   74  88  72  89 /  40  40  50  40 
Wink                     72  90  70  89 /  30  30  40  40 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...84