075 
FXUS64 KLUB 161736
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

.AVIATION...
VFR will continue through the next 24 hours at all sites with 
south winds prevailing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022/ 

SHORT TERM...
Upper level high pressure centered over the southeastern CONUS will 
expand a bit toward the west today with increasing mid/upper level 
heights. However, surface pressure will experience a larger increase 
as yesterday's cold front that moved into the Panhandle lifts back 
to the north. As a result 1000-500mb thickness values should 
actually decrease today. Resulting cooling from the decreasing 
thicknesses will likely be offset some by warming potential from dry 
air that will mix to surface from mid levels. Net result is expected 
to high temperatures about 2-5 degrees cooler than yesterday's. 
Shower/thunder chances should remain well west of the forecast area 
on the western edge of the upper level ridge on the higher terrain 
of central New Mexico. Drier air overnight and winds diminishing 
early will allow for temperatures to cool closer to, but still a bit 
above, average for the date. 

LONG TERM...
Not much change in the long-term, with an upper high expected to be 
center near the OK/KS/MO border by the beginning of the period 
(Friday). This upper high will remain in the general vicinity 
through at least the beginning of next week, allowing for 
thicknesses to remain pretty steady, thus temperatures to be similar 
each day. Models are starting to show a somewhat consistent signal 
for precipitation over parts of the region going into the beginning 
of the week as multiple weaknesses rotate around the south side of 
the high. Though, they are not consistent with the location of 
precipitation; therefore, we will keep the NBM PoPs for now. The 
upper high will shift south and expand westward, bringing warmer 
temperatures going into the middle to the latter part of next
week. GKendrick

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/07/10