902 
FXUS65 KSLC 132157
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
357 PM MDT Wed Apr 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A cold storm system will exit the region this evening.
Temperatures will steadily warm through the first half of the
weekend with unsettled conditions continuing for northern Utah,
resulting in periods of showers, primarily over the higher
terrain. 

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Friday)...The back edge of the
unseasonably cold trough that has been impacting Utah and
southwest Wyoming over the past couple of days is sliding across
northern Utah this afternoon. The resultant instability is
allowing for the development of scattered to numerous showers.
Accumulations have been generally light but have been seeing
decent accumulations with some of the heavier showers. As the back
edge of the wave moves out and with the loss of daylight heating,
will see these showers tend to diminish this evening. 

Unsettled weather will continue through the remainder of the short
term period, at least for northern Utah, as moist warm advection
develops in westerly flow overnight. The jet overhead is expected
to strengthen as weak shortwave energy ripples through this flow
during the day Thursday, allowing orographic showers to develop,
with perhaps some valley rain showers as well. Again,
accumulations will be on the light side. In the warm advection
regime, temperatures will warm back to near or slightly above
seasonal normals, ending the threat of hard freeze conditions in
the valleys. 

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Friday)...Leftover precipitation will taper 
off Friday morning, with westerly zonal flow will prevail Friday 
and most of the day on Saturday. The next trough will pass by 
Saturday into Sunday. Following this a ridge is expected to build 
in for the rest of the forecast period however, there is a chance 
for a shortwave trough to impact our region Tuesday night into 
Wednesday.

Temperatures will increase Friday into Saturday. With warm 
temperatures and moist conditions ahead of the trough, there is a 
possibility for thunder across northern and central Utah Saturday 
afternoon/evening. Ahead of this front there will be strong 
southwesterly flow, especially for southern Utah with sustained 
winds 20-25 knots. Precipitation types will mainly be liquid in the 
valleys with totals less than .1 inches. Areas above 7,000 feet will 
likely be all snow. Some snow could mix in overnight Saturday into 
Sunday for areas above 6,000 feet. Snow totals in the mountains will 
be minimal, trace to 2 inches.

After this system moves through, temperatures will be on the rise as 
the ridge builds in. Temperatures should get back to being close to 
normal or just above normal. Although this ridge is expected to 
prevail there is a 30% chance that a shortwave will affect northern 
Utah on Tuesday into Wednesday. At this point any QPF remains very 
uncertain depending on if this shortwave trough occurs. This 
solution is much more favored by GFS/GEFS members as the EC/CMC do 
not depict this trough.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Potential for one or two more rounds of light to 
moderate snow showers to keep SLC in between VFR and MVFR 
conditions through 00z Wednesday with low CIGs and visibilities 
for the terminal. Showers will move east before conditions dry up 
in the valley overnight and winds turn light and from the south. 
Another round of snow showers move back in by 12z Thursday, most 
likely sticking to the mountains as terminal vicinity showers but 
could bring lower CIGS and mountain obscuration.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Active weather continues for 
the northern valleys and SW Wyoming while southern Utah stays breezy 
but mostly low impact through the TAF period. Continued rounds of 
showers will keep the northern valleys and SW Wyoming in and out of 
MVFR and even IFR conditions till 00z Wednesday when showers should 
move eastward and out of the CWA. Winds turn back to diurnal 
patterns overnight before another round of precip early on Thursday 
for northern UT and SW Wyoming could bring back lower CIGs and 
visibilities. Southern Utah sees clear skies and breezy winds 
gusting of 20-30 knots through the evening before calming overnight 
and keeping VFR conditions through the TAF period.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Traphagan
LONG TERM...Cecava/Cunningham
AVIATION...Selbig

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