661 
FXUS63 KMPX 121133
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
533 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

Key Messages:

- Hazardous wind chills continue this morning, with the worst of the
  chills occurring now and ending shortly after sunrise.

- Chance for light snow tonight, then again tomorrow night into early
  Monday. Better chance to see accumulations is with tomorrow night's
  event.

- 50s & 60s possible by midweek depending on how quickly we can melt
  residual snowpack.

An incredibly sharp gradient in temperatures is present over MN this
morning, with upper teens below zero north of Douglas/Todd counties
increasing to only about 2-4 below zero by the time you reach St.
Cloud. Winds have largely weakened, however chills are still quite
dangerous in areas of the wind chill advisory this morning, which
persists until 9am. The area of high pressure will shift eastwards
today with the beginning of return flow entering the area, resulting
in high temperatures climbing into the mid 20s to low 30s by the
afternoon. A pair of shortwaves will bring chances for snowfall over
the next couple of nights, with the first arriving later tonight over
northwestern MN pushing south-southeast which keeps most of the snow
chances north of I-94 and especially within western WI. Snow amounts
everywhere are generally expected to remain a half inch or lower with
the bigger amounts farther north towards the Arrowhead. The second 
shortwave arrives tomorrow night and looks stronger, however also has
more uncertainty within the deterministic runs. The initial surge of
snow looks to push into far western MN by sunset (keeping in mind 
sunset tomorrow is an hour later than it is today due to Daylight 
Savings Time) pushing eastwards through central MN. Right now, the 
most likely outcome would keep accumulating snow confined to the 
central part of the state, with the northern Twin Cities metro being 
the southernmost extent, however due to the uncertainty the spread in
PoPs pushes a bit farther to the south. Accumulation tomorrow night 
seems a bit better than tonight, with the highest amounts of an inch 
to inch and a half seeming most likely.

A ridge will build into the region after the second system departs,
signaling the beginning to our major warming trend this week.
Southerly flow will push any cold air farther north into central
Canada and keep us significantly warmer than we have been, with high
temperatures surging into the 50s and 60s by midweek, with the
ultimate high temperatures highly dependent on melting our snowpack.
Lower level thermal ridging should be able to help us rapidly melt
our snowpack, with southern Minnesota through western WI likely to
see almost all of their snowpack greatly diminished if not completely
gone. Temperatures will remain above normal for the rest of the week,
with 40s and 50s through at least Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period, with CIGS dropping
but not quite making MVFR. SKC this morning will fill in this
afternoon and evening with BKN050 becoming possible by around 02-03z,
with LLWS beginning at that time as well due to shifting and slightly
increasing winds. Kept a mention of snow out of the TAF however there
is a slight chance for RNH and EAU towards the end of the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns at this time. Primary concern is LLWS
and a low chance for snow overnight tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
Mon...VFR/MVFR/-SN early. Wind E to NW 5-10kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind S 15-20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Benton-Chisago-
     Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-
     Pope-Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Wright.

WI...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Barron-Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH