578 
FXUS62 KJAX 061407
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
907 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

.UPDATE...

Sfc ridge axis is north of the area and expected to drift southward
through tonight, with a mid level ridge from srn FL north-northeast
and off the coast of the CONUS. The JAX 12Z sounding shows calm 
wind at the sfc and south-southeast winds at 10-25 kt just above 
radiation inversion through at least 800 mb. These winds aloft 
expected to mix down by the time temps reach the lower 70s which 
should be in the next hour or so for all areas. Strong heating and
southerly flow should enable max temps to reach near record highs
with mid/upper 80s inland and around upper 70s at the coast. The 
current record highs at Gainesville and Alma may be reached, 
which are from way back in 1977 and 1961, respectively. Otherwise,
generally mostly sunny skies with occasional scattered cumulus 
developing as some low level moisture works up from the southeast
around the sfc ridge. Sfc winds southeast near 8-15 mph, and may 
be gusting to 20-25 mph along the coastal zones. The current 
forecast was updated to remove patchy fog and was on track with 
minor tweaks to sky cover for the cumulus and the daytime highs.

.MARINE...

Current forecast on track, with a marginal SCA for the offshore
FL waters starting later today. Seas just touch 7 ft over the
offshore waters by late today, but also noting the NWPS looks a 
little low by about 0.5 to 1 foot in the latest forecasts so just
a minor adjustment for seas and winds. Continuing the SCA for the
offshore FL waters, and SCEC for the offshore GA waters.

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures at our designated climate sites from
today through Tuesday:

 						Sunday      Monday      Tuesday
                     -----------------------------------
Jacksonville          88 (1961)   87 (1961)   88 (1945)
Gainesville           87 (1977)   87 (1977)   88 (1921)
Alma, GA              86 (1961)   86 (1956)   86 (1974) 
St. Simons Island     85 (2003)   83 (1945)   85 (1961)
Craig Airport         88 (2003)   83 (2004)   86 (1998)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [522 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Patchy to areas of shallow ground fog will continue to impact
areas mainly between Highway 301 and the Atlantic coast through
daybreak, with intermittent visibility < 1 mile at times. After
morning fog lifts, dry conditions and above normal temperatures
will continue under an upper level ridge across south FL and low
level SE flow around the surface ridge centered offshore of the SE
Atlantic Coast. A dominant east coast sea breeze will press inland
in the afternoon, with gusts of 20-25 mph at times trailing it's
passage under a diurnally enhanced cumulus field. Highs will warm
into the mid/upper 80s well inland which could challenge records
at Alma and Gainesville today. Closer to the coast, cooler onshore
flow will temper highs in the low/mid 80s to mid/upper 70s along
the coast. 

Tonight, winds transition to more southerly continue above normal
warmth with lows in the 60s for most locations with some patchy
shallow ground fog possible inland after midnight.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...

Monday, ridging aloft centered over the Yucatan peninsula and
western Cuba will extend NE towards Bermuda while a longwave 
mid/upper level trough over the western U.S. will push east over 
the midwest with a leading shortwave impulse moving east from 
the central plains into the midwest states. This pattern will 
support a warm airmass over the region with increasing moisture
as the flow between the surface and low levels veers with height
under mid level SW flow. Upstream, the leading shortwave over
the midwest will support a developing surface low moving ENE
along the OH river valley with a cold front that will trail 
SW from the low into the lower MS valley. Surface high pressure 
pressure ridge axis extending over NE FL will weaken as the 
high pressure center slides east of Bermuda into the Atlantic
with leftover dry air aloft keeping most of the area dry with
exception of north central FL where scattered showers and a 
few thunderstorms may form as Atlantic and Gulf coast seabreezes
collide over central Fl and steer and showers and any storms 
northward into southern portion of the area south of a line 
from Gainesville to St Augustine. Winds will be breezy with
southerly winds turning southeast along the Atlantic coast 
behind the east coast seabreeze and river breeze and from the
SW behind the gulf coast seabreeze. Highs on Monday will be 
well above normal to near record values in the mid/upper 
80s with upper 70s to around 80 at the beaches. 

Tuesday the cold front will move east along the Gulf coast and
stall by afternoon as the shortwave trough aloft moves off the
NE U.S. coast along with the parent surface low that will deepen
near the New England coast. Weak shortwave impulses embedded
in the SW flow aloft over the Gulf coast region will redevelop
weak surface lows along the frontal boundary, with the bulk of
the rainfall falling west of the area with scattered shower coverage 
over most of the area with numerous showers over portions of SE GA 
west and north of Waycross. Partly cloudy skies will lead to 
sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorms during 
the afternoon and early evening hours. High will once again
rise to near record levels in the mid/upper 80s away from the
beaches on Tuesday. Lows on Tuesday morning will in the low 60s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Wednesday, the frontal boundary will drift to NW portions of the
area as a wave of showers develops along the boundary during the 
day with partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy. Enough 
surface heating is expected to allow for isolated thunderstorms 
across the area with locally heavy rainfall possible over the 
suwanee valley and interior SE GA during the afternoon and evening
hours that will persist overnight into early Thursday as a 
surface low slides the boundary southward into SE GA near the 
Altamaha river basin. 
 
Increasing dynamics on Thursday will promote scattered storms
embedded within the waves of showers that will sink from SE GA 
early in the day into NE FL during the afternoon hours. The deeper 
moisture levels up to 1.75 inches of PWATs flowing over the area 
from the Gulf of Mexico will support heavy rainfall rates that may 
promote locally heavy rains over much of the area.

Friday, the frontal boundary will remain over the area with much 
of the stronger dynamics exiting to the east as the heavier waves
of showers and storms exit east into the Atlantic. This will mean
less coverage of showers until late Friday night into early 
Saturday when a strong shortwave trough digs into the deep south 
and promotes another wave of low pressure that will lift the 
boundary north of the area before the front progresses through the
area Saturday afternoon with a final round of showers and 
isolated T'storms with cooler and drier air filtering in on the 
heels of the front during the late afternoon hours with breezy NW 
winds as high pressure builds in from the WNW. Dry conditions will
prevail Sunday with northerly winds becoming northeasterly in the
afternoon as the high builds quickly just north of the region 
over north GA and the Carolinas
  
Temperatures will begin well above normal midweek with highs in the
mid/upper 80s and lows in the low/mid 60s Wednesday. Temperatures will 
then trend to near normal values Thursday and Friday and then below 
normal Saturday afternoon into Sunday.


.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Monday]

Intermittent shallow ground fog impacted VQQ and CRG early this
morning and indicated TEMPO IFR for VQQ through 12z as CRG
radiational cooling will be disrupted by low level cumulus with 
bases 3-4 kft streaming northward. After daybreak, prevailing SE 
winds will persist through the day, with speeds increasing to 
10-12 kts as the east coast sea breeze presses inland through the 
afternoon. Few to scattered cumulus with bases 4-6 kft will 
develop once again in the afternoon. Winds decouple this evening 
after sunset with some passing low level clouds through the night 
with bases 3-4 kft and potential shallow ground fog toward sunrise
Monday morning for inland terminals as indicated by the EMC HREFv3
and for now trended VQQ toward MVFR after 07z.


.MARINE...

High pressure will build east of the local waters through Monday
with increasing SSE winds and building combined seas for the local
FL waters. By this afternoon, combined seas near 7 ft are likely
near the Gulf Stream for our outer FL waters, and issued a Small
Craft Advisory through Monday night. A front will approach from
the west Tuesday then begin to stall across the region into
Wednesday. The front will linger over the region through Thursday
with waves of showers and isolated thunderstorms impacting the
local waters. A stronger cold front is expected to move across the
local waters late Friday or early Saturday. 

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues for all local
beaches through Monday. Increasing SE winds will bring a stronger
longshore current today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  85  59  86  63  84 /   0   0   0   0  60 
SSI  77  62  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0  50 
JAX  84  62  86  62  85 /   0   0  10  10  40 
SGJ  81  61  82  62  82 /   0   0  20  20  40 
GNV  87  58  87  62  85 /   0   0  10  10  30 
OCF  88  59  88  62  86 /   0   0  20  20  30 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST 
     Tuesday for Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine 
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler 
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&