193 
FXUS64 KAMA 071100 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
500 AM CST Mon Feb 7 2022

.AVIATION...
West winds will back to the southwest this evening at all sites.
Wind speeds are expected to be around 10 knots or less through the
forecast. Skies are expected to remain VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 AM CST Mon Feb 7 2022/ 

SHORT TERM...
Downslope winds in the 10 to 20 mph range along with mostly sunny 
skies should help high temperatures to be around or just above 
normal for today.

A cold front is expected to move through the Panhandles on Tuesday, 
but unlike the last one, there won't be much cold air with it.  This 
front will be mostly a wind shift to the north.  Winds are still 
expected to get up into the 20 to 25 mph range with higher gusts 
behind the front Tuesday afternoon. Highs on Tuesday are still 
expected to get above normal.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...

Overview:
Noteworthy items in the long term include the above normal to near
normal temperatures, as well as a couple fronts, albeit weak 
fronts at this time. Its not until Friday we see a notable front 
come through the Panhandles. We are currently dry through this 
forecast, but there is some uncertainty regarding Saturday in the 
wake of the cold front, and we could potentially see temperatures 
trend lower and PoPs increase. Outside of Saturday, temperatures 
will be in the 50s and 60s through this period with little to no 
chances for precipitation.

Further Details:
The upper level pattern will be noted by northerly to
northwesterly flow aloft, and when coupled with the lack of
moisture, our precipitation chances do not look great through
Sunday. Its not until about Friday night into Saturday when the
GFS tries to develop a shortwave and actually forms a cut-off low.
Not entirely confident with this solution as this appears to be an
outlier. That said, the GFS does produce precipitation across the
Panhandles in a wintry form on Saturday as 850mb temperatures drop
down to around -5C to -10C. The QPF shield does spread across the
Panhandles post front. In other words, the front may come through
Friday afternoon/evening, but the precipitation doesn't start
until Saturday morning as the colder air infiltrates the
Panhandles. We will have to watch this day as there is some
inconsistencies between the numerical models. The NBM solution has
drier members, so at this time we are advertising very little
chances for precipitation due to the weights of the models in the
extended. This appears to be the right choice at this time given
the lack of agreement from the models outside of the GFS. 

Temperatures through the work week will be unfazed by any fronts 
as we forecast near to above normal temperatures. Temperatures 
Friday ahead of the front will be warm, as we forecast highs in 
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Normal highs are around the mid 50s 
for this time of year. Friday may end up being the warmest day 
this week across the Panhandles.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

15/24