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691 
FXUS64 KTSA 241719
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1119 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1019 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

Plentiful sunshine and westerly flow ahead of an approaching cold
front will allow for temperatures to climb well above normal by
this afternoon. Generally highs are expected to be in the low to
mid 60s across the area. The cold front will enter northeast
Oklahoma this afternoon and push southeastward across the area
into tonight. The stronger push of cold air and gustier winds 
will lag the initial wind shift by a few hours. An upper low
currently situated across Central Texas will track east throughout
the day, and any precipitation associated with the system is
expected to stay south of the area. Current forecast is on track
and just a few minor adjustments were made to hourly grids to
incorporate the current trends.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

The aforementioned cold front will slide south through the area
Monday night, with colder weather settling in for Tuesday and
Wednesday. 

00Z model runs are in reasonable agreement with the
timing/strength of the next wave that is expected to move into the
TX panhandle late Wednesday and east across srn OK/nrn TX
Wednesday night. Deterministic solutions of the NAM/ECMWF/GFS and
GEM all streak light precipitation across parts of eastern OK 
(and possibly western AR) during this time-frame, and thermal 
profiles/soundings are supportive of snow or snow/sleet mix. For 
now, have raised NBM PoPs just a bit for Wednesday night and will 
show some very light accumulations generally along and south of 
I-40. We'll closely follow the model trends over the next couple 
of days and expect adjustments as necessary.

Temperatures will moderate a touch by Thursday, with slightly
cooler weather for Friday as another upper wave and associated 
cold front swings through. Mid-level heights will rise in the wake
of this trof, with above average temperatures returning for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

A cold front will track across the area this afternoon and this
evening, bringing a shift to northerly winds in its wake. Winds
could become a little gusty, especially tomorrow morning into the
afternoon, with gusts near 20 knots possible. VFR conditions 
should prevail through the period, with some possible low clouds 
forming for northwest Arkansas terminals overnight tonight. 
Confidence is low in MVFR or lower cigs developing, but introduced
sct low clouds for those sites overnight.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  26  36  16 /   0   0  10   0 
FSM   62  30  45  21 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   64  32  45  22 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   61  23  35  15 /   0   0  10   0 
FYV   60  24  37  14 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   58  24  34  16 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   61  28  40  20 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   57  21  33  14 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   64  29  40  20 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   61  35  52  26 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...04