595 
FXUS63 KICT 090545
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1145 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022

Bottom line up front:  Temperature rollercoaster for the next 24-36 
hours, then a gradual warming trend into the beginning of the week. 
Next chance of precipitation possibly delayed until Thu night/Fri. 

Low level warm advection and moisture transport has led to 
widespread stratus clouds for areas east of the KS Turnpike, with 
some patchy drizzle over extreme SE KS. Lingering snow pack across 
central KS, has led to temperatures struggling across central KS, 
even with partly sunny conditions. 

Expect the low clouds and drizzle to linger over the Flint Hills and 
SE KS this evening, as another Canadian cold front pushes south 
across the forecast area late this evening. As the colder air pushes 
south, think the drizzle chance will increase somewhat across SE KS 
as lift associated with the front increases, but as the colder air 
pushes in, think the drizzle chance will get shunted a little 
further east into SW MO, before the much cold er air arrives, 
limiting any chance of freezing precip.  

Cold Canadian air drops south over the forecast area late tonight 
into Sunday. Lingering snow pack across central KS may lead to 
minimum temperatures falling into the upper teens across central KS, 
as the ridge axis leads to clearing skies and light winds by sunrise 
on Sunday. Expect max temperatures a little below seasonal normals 
on Sunday, as the Canadian high pressure area moves across the 
region. Expect the coldest max temps to over central KS, where the 
lingering snow cover will lead to temps struggling to reach the 
lower 30s. 

Light and variable winds are anticipated for the start of the work-
week as the mid/upper ridge builds over the Rockies with northwest 
mid/upper flow extending downstream across the central plains.

The mild and above normal temperatures will gradually return to the 
region for the beginning of the week as mid/upper flow remains out 
of the northwest. This should keep most of the colder air intrusions 
further to the east-northeast of the forecast area with most areas 
seeing highs in the mid and upper 50s. 

Ketcham 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022

As we move into the latter portions of the week, a shortwave trough 
in the Desert SW is progged to lift northeast into the Southern 
Rockies, and eventually move east into the plains. Latest model 
trends are to slow this system down some, and push it back into Thu 
night/Fri instead of Wed night/Thu.  So lots of uncertainty for the 
end of the week on timing. This system could bring increasing clouds 
and precipitation to the area late in the week. But current temp 
profile suggests a rain chance, or a mix of rain/snow. 

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022

Highlights:
1) MVFR ceilings and possible BR in SE KS

2) Increasing northerly winds 

3) VFR conditions 

Residual moisture in southeast Kansas brought in fog and drizzle
reducing visibilities down to a couple miles. The cold front has
passed through which has just started to show a response in
increased visibility and ceilings. This trend is expected to
continue with VFR conditions by 9Z which matches with the previous
forecast. It is possible that this may be too agressive or even 
too slow, but the upstream trends have been inconsistent to have 
confidence in accurate timing. Other sites should remain VFR. 
High clouds are moving into central Kansas tonight but should 
move out by morning. Breezy winds will occur through morning then
diminish in the afternoon. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    27  38  20  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      24  36  19  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          25  36  20  48 /   0   0   0   0 
ElDorado        27  37  20  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   30  41  20  50 /  10   0   0   0 
Russell         18  29  17  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Great Bend      21  35  17  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Salina          21  34  19  45 /   0   0   0   0 
McPherson       22  35  18  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     32  40  20  49 /  20   0   0   0 
Chanute         30  38  21  48 /  20   0   0   0 
Iola            29  37  20  47 /  20   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    32  40  20  49 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...VJP