618 
FXUS61 KCAR 062327
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
627 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Intensifying low pressure will track southeast of the Gulf of 
Maine Friday, then exit east of Nova Scotia Saturday. An Arctic 
cold front will cross the region later Sunday through early
Monday. High pressure builds in Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
6:27 PM Update: Partly to mostly cloudy across the north with a
few flurries. There are more breaks in the clouds across the 
southern portion of the FA. The main update at this time was to 
upgrade coastal Washington County to a blizzard warning. The 
track and intensity of the low look similar to the blizzard in 
February 2017, but the confidence is low in widespread blizzard 
Conditons Downeast, but high enough along the Washington County 
coast to upgrade. 

Previous discussion:
A weakening surface trough will remain over northern zones this
evening with a lot of moisture in the H925 to H850 range. 
Resultant clouds and flurries will keep temps from dropping off 
too much. High pressure slowly builds overnight and may provide 
some brief clearing intervals, but high clouds will increase 
later in the night ahead of Friday's storm. The net result will 
be lows in the teens in northern zones and low to mid 20s for 
Bangor and Downeast. 

The big focus in the forecast remains on the Friday's powerful coastal
storm. Southern stream moisture phases with a potent northern 
stream shortwave tonight. Bombogenesis occurs tonight into 
Friday as the developing surface low tracks from coastal 
Virginia towards the southern coast of Nova Scotia. The upper
level trough will become negative tilted and the low pressure
system will quickly become vertically stacked through H500 over
western Nova Scotia by Friday evening. The storm may deepen by 
35mb from this evening into Friday evening. The track ensures 
that the event will be all snow and that the greatest risk of 
heavy snow will be along the Downeast coast. This is where our 
ongoing warnings are located. Did add northern Hancock County to
the warning with the expectation of reaching the 7-inch 
threshold within a 12-hour span. The explosive deepening of the 
storm is likely to generate intense banding that will impact 
coastal Hancock County and large portions of Washington County 
with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour on Friday 
afternoon. Storm total amounts of over 10 inches are now 
expected in coastal Washington County to include Machias, Lubec,
Eastport and maybe as far north as Calais. The position of the 
emerging H500 low in the Gulf of Maine on Friday afternoon 
suggests even higher amounts are possible. Further north and 
west, amounts will decrease towards the 3 to 6 inch range with 
the lowest amounts towards the North Woods. Only a couple of 
inches are expected for the North Woods and northern locations 
such as Fort Kent. Did expand the advisory to include southern 
Aroostook County where advisory criteria of 4 inches is likely 
to be met. Ratios will be more favorable in northern zones with 
lighter winds and lower dendritic growth zone. Went with lower 
ratios closed to the coast due in part to the strong winds. 
Blowing and drifting snow is a big concern for Downeast Friday 
afternoon and will make travel very hazardous. The combination 
of heavy snow and winds gusting over 35 mph during Friday 
afternoon along the Downeast coast could necessitate an upgrade 
in our headlines. The key will be whether the heaviest banding 
sets up offshore or along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong low pressure will quickly exit to the northeast of Nova 
Scotia Friday evening. As it does so, the steadier snow across 
eastern and Downeast Maine will quickly diminish to scattered 
snow showers. Gusty Northwest winds can be expected in the tight
pressure gradient between the exiting low and high pressure 
building in from the west. Areas of blowing snow can be expected 
Downeast, with patchy blowing snow expected across eastern 
areas much of the night. Otherwise, we will see partial 
clearing by Saturday morning. With winds staying up, don't 
expect much in the way of radiational cooling. 

Brief ridging H85 through H50 layer, and surface high pressure 
building across, will set the stage for a mainly sunny Saturday.
Northwest winds will still be a bit on the gusty side early in 
the day, but will begin to diminish in the afternoon, with the 
axis of the surface ridge building in. There could still be some
patchy blowing snow early Saturday morning, but won't include 
at this time. Highs on Saturday will continue below normal 
levels.

By Saturday night, the surface high will continue to drift off to 
the east, as the upper flow becomes more westerly with time. As
it does so, warm advection aloft will bring increasing mid and 
high level cloudiness overnight Saturday. A little light snow or
snow showers are possible after midnight, mainly across the 
northern zones.

On Sunday, a series of cold fronts will approach the region. 
This will bring the chance for snow showers or a little snow to 
the region Sunday and Sunday afternoon. Sunday will be the last 
"mild" day for a while, with highs reaching the upper 20s to 
lower 30s north and low to mid 30s Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
     The big story in the long term will be the bitter cold air 
that will move into the region early to mid week... 

The leading edge of the arctic air will begin to cross the 
region Sunday evening and into Sunday night. Will need to watch 
for the potential of more significant snow showers or squalls 
with that feature.

Strong cold air advection can be expected on Monday behind the
arctic boundary, with early highs in the low teens across the
north and lower 20s Downeast.

Monday night will be a very cold and blustery night with sub
zero readings across the area. Wind chill advisories/warnings
will likley be be needed for a good portion of the area.

Tuesday will be a bitter cold and blustery day with high temperatures
not making it out of the single digits below zero across the north,
and only in the lower single digits above zero downeast.

Temperatures will slowly moderate mid week. although still well
below normal. The next system will bring the chance for snow
possibly by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected tonight for BGR and BHB.
Conditions will vary between MVFR and VFR tonight for sites 
north of HUL and GNR...with IFR even possible at times for FVE
in light snow. Light and variable wind. 

For Friday, all sites will quickly go to IFR or LIFR in the
morning due to snow. The snow may be heavy with VLIFR vis for 
BGR, BHB, Machias and Eastport by late morning into the 
afternoon. Blowing snow will also be a vis restriction for sites
such as Eastport, Machias, Princeton, and BHB in the afternoon.
N wind increases to 10 to 15 knots at the northern Taf sites,
but to 15 to 25 knots at KBGR and likely even stronger with
gusts to 35 knots possible late in the day at KBHB.

SHORT TERM: 

Fri night...IFR in snow in the evening, then improving to VFR 
after midnight. NW winds 10 to 20 kt gusting to 25 kt.

Sat..VFR. NW wind 10 to 15 kt, decreasing to less than 10 kt
late.

Sat night...VFR, possible MVFR in sct -SHSN North late. S wind
around 5 kt.

Sun and Sun night...MVFR in sct -shsn or -sn. W to SW wind 10 to
15 kt.

Mon...VFR. NW wind 10 to 20 kt.

Tue...VFR. Nw Wind 10 to 15 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A high impact gale event for Friday afternoon and 
Friday night. Seas will increase towards 7 to 8 feet again 
Friday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Winds will begin to subside to SCA conditions later
Friday night, with SCA conditions continuing through the
weekend.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday 
     for MEZ006-011-015-032.
     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for 
     MEZ016-017-029.
     Blizzard Warning from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for 
     MEZ030.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/MCW
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...CB/MCW/TWD
Marine...CB/MCW/TWD