288 
FXUS64 KHGX 022207
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
407 PM CST Thu Dec 2 2021

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday Night]... 

Temperatures up into the mid to upper 70s at 2 pm and still some 
heating to go so near 80 in reach. Strong inversion over the area 
and getting stronger which should help lead into the scenario of 
more fog developing tonight. At this point expect that mainly the 
southern half of the area needing a dense fog advisory by midnight 
to 2 am and then still a little more iffy but the northern areas 
probably needing one after 3 am. The fog that develops will very 
likely be slow to improve before 9 am except perhaps near the coast 
where a more mixed airmass may intrude. A shortwave moving east from 
the Gulf of California rotating around the main upper low should 
traverse S TX early Fri and then on into SETX by noon.
This feature may lead to some spotty light sprinkles in the morning 
but don't get your hopes up for measurable rainfall. Temperatures in 
the afternoon should pop back up into the upper 70s to near 80 
inland as the wave departs. The warmth continues with the continues 
Friday night with the light southerly flow and continued moistening 
up of the low levels...much above normal temperatures. Fog will be 
in the offing again across the region mainly after midnight.
45


&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday through Thursday]...

With the mid/upper level ridge over the region flattening out in re-
sponse to a series of approaching shortwaves, isolated showers will
be possible by Sat afternoon (especially when coupled with the weak
ongoing WAA and return of low-level moisture). And even with mostly
cloudy skies, highs on Sat should range from the upper 70s to lower
80s... mid 70s at the coast. 

Slightly better agreement noted with the 12Z runs as models are now
signaling that the timing of the next front for Sun night/early Mon
morning. Canadian/ECMWF now just a few hours faster than GFS...with
FROPA at the coast between 12-15Z Mon (versus 15-18Z). So, based on
this, Sun should be very similar to Sat with regards to temperature
and humidity but with lower POPs. Progs are keeping with veering SW
winds just ahead of the front, and when combined with the overnight
timing, probably not going to make many changes to the 30%-40% POPs
already in the grids for this time period. CAA behind this front is
expected to be very brief as onshore winds return Tues morning/aft-
ernoon. All of this is mainly in response to that pesky cut-off low
near the California Baja finally kicking out east as this next mid/
upper trof begins to develop/deepen as it moves toward the Rockies.
The prospects of ejecting (strong) disturbances from the W/SW ahead
of the main trof axis could make for a rather active period of very
unsettled weather from late Tues on through Wed night. While global
models in general agreement with the evolution of the overall long-
wave pattern, there are notable differences with the track of these
disturbances (with ECMWF further south than GFS) at this time. Will
be something to monitor looking ahead. 41

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will help produce a
mostly light onshore flow across our marine waters through Sat. We
could see a some strengthening of winds/seas by Sat night into Sun
as pressures fall in the lee of the Rockies. Winds are forecast to
veer to the SW by Sun night through early Monday morning as a cold
front pushes into the coastal waters. The front should move across
the coastal waters by Mon afternoon with a generally moderate N/NE
flow developing behind it. However, with the next storm system ex-
pected to develop and move in quickly from the west, and we should
see light to moderate S/SE winds return to the coastal waters Tues
morning or afternoon. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      61  78  63  78  63 /   0  10  10  20  10 
Houston (IAH)              62  79  63  78  63 /   0  10   0  10  10 
Galveston (GLS)            65  77  66  75  67 /   0   0   0  10  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$