645 
FXUS63 KMQT 031730
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
130 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 528 AM EDT WED NOV 3 2021

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-level ridge over the 
Rockies extending n thru the NW Territories. Downstream, a trof 
dominates eastern N America. As a result, northerly flow prevails 
across Upper MI early this morning. For the 3rd morning in a row, 
LES continues off Lake Superior, and it remains disorganized with 
really no banding due to steep low-level lapse rates present across 
the Upper Great Lakes region. Over the last 3 days, the evening KINL 
soundings have shown steep low-level lapse rates up thru around 
800mb. CWPL sounding has been similar, just a little less depth to 
the dry adiabatic low-level lapse rates. Overnight, LES over the w 
has been focused and most persistent into western Gogebic 
County/adjacent Ontonagon County due to land breeze wind component 
developing off nw WI. There has likely been several inches of snow 
in that area. To the e, land breeze wind component off Marquette 
County is supporting persistent/heavier snow into western Alger 
County with the snow just clipping eastern Marquette County, as far 
w as about 5 miles e of the city of Marquette. Across western Alger 
County, would not be surprised if overnight snow accumulations have 
locally been as much as 4-7 inches given the persistence of heavier 
snow showers. 

LES will be on the downward trend today and tonight as height rises 
and waa get underway. Low-level flow will also become anticyclonic 
with arrival of sfc high pres ridge. That said, LES will continue at 
good clip this morning in the areas currently being impacted. Lake 
induced equilibrium levels will still be around 12kft into the 
eastern fcst area and will be falling to around 8kft w. Expect 
another 2 to locally as much as 5 inches of snowfall this morning 
across Alger/northern Schoolcraft counties. Max snowfall will be in 
western Alger County. Over the w, expect another couple of inches of 
snow for Ontonagon/Gogebic counties. Ongoing advys will remain in 
place until current scheduled expiration at 15z. This aftn, backing 
winds will begin shifting snow showers to the ne. Continued backing 
winds to the wsw tonight will shift remaining -shsn mostly offshore. 
If any -shsn remain by late tonight, they will be confined to 
Keweenaw County and along the lake from Grand Marais eastward. 
Expect high temps today in the mid 30s to around 40F. With skies 
becoming clear to partly cloudy and a light wind tonight, temps will 
fall back into at least the upper teens F where snow cover exists. 
Certainly possible that some of those areas may fall into the 10-15F 
range. Temps will range up to around 30F locally along the Great 
Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT WED NOV 3 2021

Expect lake-effect snow showers to end over the far east near 
Whitefish Point Thursday morning as cold air associated with 
troughing centered over Quebec moves east. In it's place, expect a 
decaying ridge from the Canadian Prairies to move over us Friday, 
bringing with it warmer conditions across Upper MI. Highs Friday 
look to be around 50F for most of the area. What may limit 
additional heating looks to be partly cloudy skies likely due to a 
shortwave approaching the area from the Northern Plains. This 
shortwave looks to impact us around Saturday, bringing some light 
rain showers across the area. There does seem to be a better chance 
for precip over the east, as it may be that the shortwave will be 
better organized by the time it arrives over eastern Upper MI.

Once the shortwave leaves the area, expect strong WAA associated 
with ridging Sunday. Could see highs in the mid to upper 50s, which 
would be anomalously warm. Could see a similarly warm day Monday, as 
the 12z run of the ENS yesterday had 850mb temps in the 90th 
percentiles Monday and Monday night. However, the most recent 
deterministic GFS and Euro have significantly cooler air now coming 
over us starting Monday as a cold front comes through. The cold air 
behind the front would remain over the area until the end of the 
extended period. Therefore, while I did go with the NBM and the warm 
temps associated with it for the latter part of the extended 
forecast, I do have my doubts that these warmer conditions will be 
realized. Also, decided to leave rain chances out of the forecast 
for Monday, as the models are still rather light on the precip 
amounts expected. Probably will add in some rain chances Monday in 
subsequent forecasts, provided there isn't a major change in the 
model guidance. Once we get closer to the end of the extended 
period, we could see some rain chances across the area Monday night 
thru Wednesday (as model guidance differs on when precip will fall 
next week. Since the NBM followed the Euro pretty much, felt okay 
sticking with the NBM for now). Could see some snow mix-in during 
the overnight hours in the interior west Monday night/Tuesday 
morning and again Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. On Wednesday, the 
NBM has gone with a warm front moving across the area. However, 
models have now shifted to a Colorado Low forming late Tuesday night 
and lifting northeast towards Upper MI Wednesday. This shift has 
made the NBM out of step with the most recent model guidance. That 
being said, did keep the NBM in the forecast, as it is 7 days out 
and much can change between model forecast cycles for that far out.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 117 PM EDT WED NOV 3 2021

The LES machine will continue to wind down as the day progresses,
although KCMX is anticipated to see another round of LES showers
move through tonight before finally clearing out toward the end of
this TAF period. At KSAW and KIWD, VFR conditions are anticipated
to prevail, although can't be entirely ruled out for a brief
period of MVFR due to ceilings and/or visbys if a rogue shower
moves through. W to WNW winds at the start of this period will
keep backing until it becomes southwesterly by tomorrow. By then,
expect generally clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 528 AM EDT WED NOV 3 2021

Expect winds across Lake Superior to be mostly under 20kt thru Fri 
morning as NW winds back around to the SW. During Fri aftn, S to SW 
winds will increase, reaching 20-30kt by evening, strongest east 
half of Lake Superior. Some gale force gusts to 35kt will then be 
possible across the e half Fri night. Winds will fall back to under 
20kt on Sat and remain under 20kt on Sun.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...Rolfson