AFOS product AFDTSA
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTSA
Product Timestamp: 2021-10-18 11:23 UTC

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FXUS64 KTSA 181123
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
623 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the forecast 
period. Some mid/high clouds will continue to pass across MLC/FSM 
through mid morning. More high clouds begin to spread into the area 
late this afternoon from the west ahead of storm system translating 
into the central Rockies. Surface high pressure shifts to the east 
today as lee trough deepens to our west. Pressure gradient 
strengthens across nern OK to support southerly wind gusts to near 20
kts this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 410 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Southerly winds will increase over the next couple days, which
will lead to an increase in fire weather concerns, especially to
the west of Highway 75. Temperatures will remain a bit above
normal over the next couple days.

A weak cold front will move across the area Wednesday. Instability
will remain very limited, and guidance including the National
Blend of Models is not very bullish on any precipitation with the
frontal passage. A few light showers may develop Wednesday across
parts of northwest Arkansas, but most places will remain dry.

Another frontal boundary will approach the area and likely stall
across the area from Friday through the weekend. There is a strong
enough signal in the latest model data to increase pops over the
NBM Friday and Saturday, with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms expected into the weekend, with the greatest
coverage likely along and north of the stalled frontal boundary.

Stayed close to the National Blend of Models temperatures through
the period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  56  78  61 /   0   0   0  10 
FSM   76  50  79  57 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   75  54  77  61 /   0   0   0  10 
BVO   74  51  77  57 /   0   0   0  10 
FYV   71  47  74  54 /   0   0   0  10 
BYV   72  49  74  55 /   0   0   0  10 
MKO   74  53  76  57 /   0   0   0  10 
MIO   73  53  75  57 /   0   0   0  10 
F10   74  53  77  59 /   0   0   0  10 
HHW   74  52  76  58 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....05
AVIATION.....69