National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTSA
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDTSA
Product Timestamp: 2021-10-18 11:23 UTC
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268 FXUS64 KTSA 181123 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 623 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the forecast period. Some mid/high clouds will continue to pass across MLC/FSM through mid morning. More high clouds begin to spread into the area late this afternoon from the west ahead of storm system translating into the central Rockies. Surface high pressure shifts to the east today as lee trough deepens to our west. Pressure gradient strengthens across nern OK to support southerly wind gusts to near 20 kts this afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 410 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/ DISCUSSION... Southerly winds will increase over the next couple days, which will lead to an increase in fire weather concerns, especially to the west of Highway 75. Temperatures will remain a bit above normal over the next couple days. A weak cold front will move across the area Wednesday. Instability will remain very limited, and guidance including the National Blend of Models is not very bullish on any precipitation with the frontal passage. A few light showers may develop Wednesday across parts of northwest Arkansas, but most places will remain dry. Another frontal boundary will approach the area and likely stall across the area from Friday through the weekend. There is a strong enough signal in the latest model data to increase pops over the NBM Friday and Saturday, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected into the weekend, with the greatest coverage likely along and north of the stalled frontal boundary. Stayed close to the National Blend of Models temperatures through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 75 56 78 61 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 76 50 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 75 54 77 61 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 74 51 77 57 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 71 47 74 54 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 72 49 74 55 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 74 53 76 57 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 73 53 75 57 / 0 0 0 10 F10 74 53 77 59 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 74 52 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ LONG TERM....05 AVIATION.....69