268 
FXUS65 KVEF 081025
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
325 AM PDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system moving in from the Pacific will produce 
wet weather across much of the region today along with strong south 
winds over parts of southeast California and south central Nevada. 
Cool and unsettled weather will continue Saturday followed by dry 
and tranquil conditions Sunday. A colder weather system will drop in 
from the north Monday and Tuesday, bringing strong north winds and 
temperatures lowering well below seasonal normals.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday.

A band of moisture streaming from southern California up across 
southern Nevada into southwest Utah will likely produce a 3-4 hour 
period of stratiform light rainfall across parts of eastern San 
Bernardino and Clark counties before 10 AM PDT this morning. Amounts 
will generally be less than 0.10" for these areas except the higher 
elevations of the Spring Mountains could extract 0.50-0.75" of 
rainfall according to the latest QPF estimates. This moisture plume 
was preceding a trough off the West Coast which will swing inland 
and lift across south central Nevada this afternoon and evening. 
This will push the moisture plume over northwest Arizona through 
early afternoon as it slides toward the Four Corners region by this 
evening. The plateau country of northern Mohave County may see 0.25-
0.50". 

Meanwhile Inyo, Esmeralda, central Nye and Lincoln counties will see 
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms as the fast 
moving trough destabilizes the air mass over these areas late this 
morning through the afternoon. Showers will gradually diminish late 
tonight as the trough lifts away to the northeast.

In addition to the showers, this system will produce widespread 
gusty winds over 40 mph from the southern Owens Valley and northwest 
San Bernardino County up across the southern half of Death Valley 
and most of south central Nevada. The Spring Mountains and Lincoln 
County were added to the Wind Advisory for today. Angel Peak as 
already been gusting 45-57 mph since late Thursday evening and high 
res models indicate winds will increase especially across the 
northeast facing slopes this morning through the afternoon. HREF and 
ECMWF ensembles leave little doubt that much of central and northern 
Lincoln County will see widespread gusts between 40 and 50 mph this 
afternoon. This may also lead to a few thunderstorms possibly 
producing gusts over 60 mph.

Saturday will see an additional low pressure system drop down 
through southern Nevada. This system was digging off the Pacific 
Northwest Coast this morning. This will bring a reinforcing shot of 
cool air and north breezes down through our region, but moisture 
will generally be limited to eastern Nevada and far northwest 
Arizona. However, the cold pool moving over Clark County in the 
afternoon could produce a few flurries in parts of the Spring 
Mountains above 8500 feet.

Temperatures will drop about 6 to 10 degrees today and another 
couple degrees Saturday, bringing the region about 10 degrees below 
seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday.

Models showing a break in the progressive pattern Sunday with less 
wind and slightly warmer temperatures. 

A significant change to colder, windy and showery weather expected 
Monday and Tuesday as a deep trough digs into the Great Basin. 
Conditions that will bring impacts include strong winds developing 
Monday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday. First freeze of the 
Fall Season likely for Lincoln, northern Mohave and central Nye 
Counties, as well as the Owens Valley. High temperatures 15-20 
degrees below normal with some record low maximum temperatures being 
threatened Tuesday. Excluding the mountains of northern Lincoln 
County where several inches of snow are possible, precipitation 
amounts still look light but precipitation will come in the form of 
snow down to 3500-4000 feet.

Great Basin will lie under a dry northwest flow Wednesday and 
Thursday. North winds look to linger, especially within the lower 
Colorado River both days while temperatures gradually warm. 
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light rain and ceilings around 6 kft will 
occur this morning along with gusty south-southwest winds around 25 
kts. Rain should clear out to the east before noon, but gusty winds 
will persist through today into early this evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...A Pacific weather system will move across the region 
today producing widespread light rain across areas near and south 
of I-15 this morning through early afternoon. Scattered to numerous 
showers will develop across northern Inyo County and around central 
Nevada late this morning through the afternoon. Widespread gusty 
south-southwest winds 35-45 knots can be expected across much of the 
region north of I-15. Showers will diminish across east central 
Nevada late this evening and wind speeds will decrease after sunset 
as northwest winds 10-15 knots push down through central Nevada late 
tonight.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Adair
LONG TERM...Pierce


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