907 
FXUS62 KTAE 080801
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
401 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The energetic southern end of an upper trough is making its way east 
across Alabama right now. In advance of it today, decent 500 mb 
height falls will cross Georgia and the eastern Big Bend today.
The afternoon air mass over our Eastern Time Zone counties will be 
moderately unstable and unseasonably moist. Given the larger scale 
lift, showers and a few thunderstorms have continued to blossom in 
the last few hours, and this will continue to be the case for much 
of today. The best focus will slowly move east and finally exit our 
far eastern counties by late this evening. With bulk shear near 25 
knots, convective cells could form into loosely organized multi-cell 
clusters which could be accompanied by gusty outflow winds. If cells 
manage to organize into any lines, then slow movement of the lines 
would lead to locally heavy rainfall. 

The main upper trough will exit eastward late tonight while digging 
off the FL east coast. An upper ridge will start to amplify over 
Texas, so our flow aloft will become more northerly.
A drier mid-level air mass will arrive, with more modest drying in 
the boundary layer. Some patchy fog may develop late tonight where 
the richer low-level moisture is slow to exit along the I-75 
corridor.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]...

Northerly flow overtakes the service area this weekend as troughing 
slides off the Atlantic Seaboard and ridging builds in from the 
southwest. The former feature aids in the development of a low-
pressure system that short-term models track southward along 
Florida's east coast. Wrap-around moisture from this low favors the 
best rain chances (albeit only up to 25%) along the I-75 corridor 
and southeast Big Bend on Saturday, in addition to the likelihood of 
patchy fog. The presence of drier air in the wake of a weak front 
should preclude convection elsewhere - welcoming news for hard-hit 
locations from this recent stretch of very wet weather! 
Precipitation effectively diminishes to nil by Sunday, paving the 
way for mostly quiet conditions heading into next week. High 
temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 80s, while lows fall to 
the mid 60s. Some normally cooler spots may see low 60s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Ridging becomes better established across the region, with our area 
entrenched within its southwest-northeast oriented axis to begin the 
work week. This pattern should keep warm and mostly dry weather in 
place over the next few days, though a gradual moisture return is 
expected as low-level flow veers out of the northeast and east. By 
the end of period, global models bring a cold front towards the 
lower TN Valley, with the ridge weakening in response. This synoptic 
shift likely results in the return of appreciable rain chances 
heading into next weekend. High temperatures are forecast to be in 
the mid-upper 80s (lows in the mid-upper 60s).

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Saturday]

The boundary layer is extremely moist early this morning, so fog is 
already developing at DHN, with mist at TLH. In addition, a moist 
and unstable air mass aloft in advance of an upper trough is 
supporting scattered showers from near Tyndall AFB to Albany GA, 
with thunder near the coast. A low eastward progression is expected 
for showers and storms today, mostly leaving DHN and ECP behind, 
while providing showers in the vicinity of TLH, ABY, and VLD. Skies 
will clear out this evening, and slightly drier low-level air will 
arrive. 

&&

.MARINE...

Light northerly winds prevail through Saturday, then switch out of 
the northeast on Sunday, and finally become easterly early next 
week. Overall, favorable boating conditions are expected over the 
next few days away from convection, for which chances diminish this 
weekend and remain low for the remainder of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An unseasonably moist air mass will be in place today, with modest 
drying on Friday. Spotty wetting rains from showers and 
thunderstorms are expected today over our districts in the Eastern 
Time Zone. Any thunderstorms will contain gusty winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Flood Warnings are currently in effect for the Apalachicola at 
Blountstown, and the Sopchoppy. The Apalachicola is expected to 
crest in minor flood stage this afternoon, thanks to downstream 
routing of water down the Chattachooche and Flint, after heavy rain 
further north in Georgia. The Sopchoppy is flooding due to heavy 
rain on Thursday morning. It should fall below flood stage this 
afternoon or evening. 

After this evening, dry weather will prevail for the next week.
This will allow water to flush through the river systems and avoid 
driving any additional rivers above flood. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   86  67  86  64  86 /  40  20  10   0  10 
Panama City   86  68  86  66  85 /  30   0   0   0   0 
Dothan        84  64  83  63  83 /  20   0   0   0   0 
Albany        85  66  84  63  84 /  40  10   0   0   0 
Valdosta      85  67  86  65  85 /  60  30  10   0  10 
Cross City    86  70  87  66  86 /  60  30  30  10  10 
Apalachicola  84  69  85  68  83 /  50  10   0   0  10 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM...IG3
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner