700 
FXUS61 KGYX 110049 AAB
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
849 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west through Saturday with dry
and seasonable weather expected for Saturday. The next low 
pressure system tracks well to the north in Canada on Sunday, 
dragging a cold front into New England where it will stall. Showers
and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible along this front.
High pressure will keep the area mostly dry through Tuesday
before a trough approaches from the west, bringing increasing
chances for scattered showers towards the middle to end of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends. 

Previous discussion...The center of SFC high pressure will move
eastward to the south of New England tonight and Saturday. A 
ridge axis extending north of this high will move over northern 
New England tonight allowing for clearing and also a lessening 
in wind speeds after midnight. The pressure gradient will still 
remain a bit tight, but the low levels should decouple in the 
river valleys which should promote areas of fog tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday and Saturday night will feature the onset of a warm air
advection pattern with warming temperatures and some increase in
humidity. Dry weather is expected except for perhaps a low for a
few showers in the mountains toward dawn on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overview: An area of low pressure passing well to our north on 
Sunday may result in a few scattered showers during the afternoon 
and evening, especially across the north and mountains. A cold front 
will drop south through New England late in the day on Sunday
before exiting the region on Monday. High pressure will help to
keep us mostly dry and seasonably warm through early next week.
Another trough will arrive towards the middle to end of next 
week with an embedded low, which will increase our chances for 
scattered rain showers and cooler temperatures. 

Impacts: Little to no major weather related impacts are expected 
through the end of next week.

Forecast Details: A closed surface low will pass through Quebec on 
Sunday, which will send a cold front southeastward through northern 
New England. Our area will be on the northern edge of the better 
lifting dynamics but some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are still possible across the north and 
mountains, especially during the afternoon and evening. The
thermodynamics currently do not look very favorable for upward
vertical growth, and therefore thunder was not added to this
forecast package but it may be needed in the future. We will be
briefly into the warm sector and therefore many locations 
outside of the mountains will make a run for the lower 80s as 
dewpoints climb well into the 60s under partly cloudy skies. A 
decaying MCS/wave may move across southern locations overnight 
on Sunday along the stalled frontal boundary, which may result 
in some scattered showers as low temperatures fall into the 40s 
across the north to the 60s in southern NH. The front will 
clear the entire CWA by early Monday morning, which will set us 
up for a very nice day as high temperatures reach the 70s with 
noticeably lower dewpoints. While an isolated shower may 
persist across southern locations, most areas will remain dry. 
Continued quiet conditions are expected on Monday night with low
temperatures falling into the 40s to 50s from north to south. 

Brief 500 mb ridging is expected on Tuesday, which will result 
in partly cloudy skies with high temperatures reaching the 60s 
across the north to lower 70s in southern NH. The forecast then 
becomes a little more uncertain towards the middle and end of 
next week as differences remain across forecast guidance as to 
the evolution of a trough, which will be approaching New England
from the west. Some guidance has this trough arriving as early 
as Wednesday while others delay it until Thursday. Either way, 
expecting gradually increasing cloudiness along with increasing
rain chances beginning late Tuesday night through part of
Thursday. Weak ridging is then expected to return by Friday
before another system approaches towards the end of next
weekend. Temperatures will remain normal to slightly above 
normal through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term..VFR expected much of tonight through Saturday 
night except for vly fog tonight at KHIE/KLEB.

Long Term...Mostly VFR conditions expected on Sunday through much of 
next week as high pressure keeps the region mostly dry with light 
winds. A few isolated to scattered showers will be possible on 
Sunday as a cold front crosses northern New England, which may 
result in brief MVFR conditions. Another system may bring MVFR
conditions within any SHRA on Tuesday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Long period swell will peak tonight, with near 
shore waves of 5-7 feet, and offshore waves of 7-10 ft. The 
seas will begin to subside late tonight and Sat as Larry moves 
NNE across Newfoundland, and offshore flow begins to shorten the
swell period. 

Long Term...Southerly winds may gust up to 30 kts on Sunday 
ahead of an approaching cold front with seas of 4-6 feet. High 
pressure will result in weakening flow and diminishing seas 
through early next week before winds approach SCA criteria again
on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides top out at their highest peak for the month
in the next few days. Haven't seen too many issues out there
today except for some minor splashover. Therefore, with a lower
high tide tonight will forgo a coastal flood statement at this
time.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for MEZ023>028.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro