National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDABQ
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDABQ
Product Timestamp: 2021-09-06 17:47 UTC
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986 FXUS65 KABQ 061747 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1147 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. A few thunderstorms are possible across the northeast plains, south central and southwest mountains this afternoon. Storms will shift toward the south around 5-10 kt. If storms develop and hold together, KTCC may be impacted this evening, but confidence is low. Storms will have the potential to produce gusty and erratic winds. Quiet conditions expected overnight. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...217 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021... .SYNOPSIS... A few more showers and storms are possible today over the southern high terrain and across eastern NM. Some of the stronger cells will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, strong winds, and small hail. The remainder of this week will feature near-record heat as an unseasonably strong area of high pressure dominates the region. Low temperatures will still be cool with clear skies and light winds. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... Strong high pressure dome over the Great Basin will continue to strengthen today and Tuesday. The flow around this high will continue to usher in dry air from UT/CO, limiting afternoon thunderstorms to a few over the Mogollon mountains in Catron County, a storm or two over the Sacramento and Capitan mountains and a few storms in Union county this afternoon. Any showers or thunderstorms will likely remain south of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Above average temperatures will be the rule areawide today and Tuesday thanks to the above mentioned high pressure dome and the lack of moisture resulting in cloud cover. LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... Surface high pressure will build south down the Front Range Tuesday night in the wake of an upper trough ejecting east thru the northern Great Plains. A back door cold front entering eastern NM will bring slight relief to the near-record heat Wednesday. The rest of central and western NM will remain hot and dry. The center of a near-record 596dm H5 ridge will focus over the Four Corners region Wednesday and Thursday before sliding ESE into central NM Friday and Saturday. H7 temps are now progged by the ECMWF to reach +18C at KABQ by the end of the week. This H7 temp will rival the September record going back to 1948. In a nutshell, it's gonna be hot thru the end of the week. The very dry airmass will however make for comfortably cool overnight temps under clear skies and light winds. 33/Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... Strong high pressure once again over the Great Basin will result in mostly dry conditions areawide during the next 7 days. Temperatures will remain above average for early to mid September through the week. Dewpoint temperatures and the associated relative humidity values will be below to well below average for September. 33 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$