040 
FXUS64 KTSA 071741
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1241 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.DISCUSSION...

The 18Z TAF discussion follows...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail thru the period. Increasing mid and
high level cloudiness will occur tonight into Sunday morning in
association with a passing upper wave. Some isolated showers and
storms are possible across NE OK and far NW AR aft 12Z.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 950 AM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

Ridging ahead of a shortwave trough over the central Rockies will
maintain hot, humid and dry conditions today. Using the blended
guidance ensemble median and MOS guidance, highs were nudged up
just a tad from the going forecast, and just below the blended 
guidance deterministic values. As such, there may be a few areas
across NE OK that get close to advisory level heat criteria this
afternoon. Will continue to monitor and issue an advisory if
needed. It's also not out of the question that an isolated shower
could pop up down near the ArkLaTex this afternoon, but chances
are too low to mention over far SE OK. Updated products have been
sent.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 631 AM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021/ 

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A little light morning fog will last for another hour or so across
northwest Arkansas sites. Otherwise...southerly winds will
increase this morning and gust to near or over 20 kts this
afternoon, especially for Oklahoma sites. VFR conditions are
expected throughout the period ofter the fog dissipates. A few
showers are possible toward the end of the TAF period for
northeast Oklahoma, but chances look to be low for this period
with better chances at later times.

Bowlan

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 403 AM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Hot and humid conditions will be the rule for much of the forecast
period, with some minor heat relief possible by Friday or
Saturday. Maximum heat index values may touch the magic 105
threshold in a few spots both today and Sunday, with more
widespread 105+ heat index values becoming more likely during the
Monday through Wednesday timeframe. Will hold off on a heat
advisory at this time, and let the day shift monitor temperature
and dew point trends today. One big difference from this round of
heat as compared to the last one is that southerly winds will be
quite breezy this time around, thus WBGT values will remain lower
than they were then, keeping the heat stress lower.

An upper level system passing to our north will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms late tonight and Sunday, with the 
highest chances in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. An
isolated severe storm or two will be possible Sunday. Shower and
storm chances may linger through at least Sunday night across
parts of far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas as
well.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday through the
end of the week as a frontal boundary approaches from the north.
This front will eventually push into and through the area, but it
may take it until Friday or Friday night to have any real effect
on temperatures. 

Stayed close to the National Blend of Models forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  78  96  78 /   0  10  30  20 
FSM   95  76  95  77 /   0   0  20  10 
MLC   94  76  94  77 /   0   0  20   0 
BVO   93  76  94  75 /   0  20  30  20 
FYV   90  72  91  73 /   0   0  20  10 
BYV   91  73  91  74 /   0   0  20  20 
MKO   93  75  94  77 /   0   0  20  10 
MIO   92  75  92  74 /   0  10  30  30 
F10   94  76  95  76 /   0   0  20  10 
HHW   93  75  93  76 /  10   0  20   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....30