759 
FXUS65 KBOI 191609
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1009 AM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.DISCUSSION...Warm and dry conditions today under a weak upper
level ridge. The ridge does get suppress some by a passing upper
level trough and cold front which will keep temperatures a few
degrees cooler than yesterday. The frontal passage will bring wind
gusts up to 30 MPH with its passage late this afternoon/evening
especially across Southwest Idaho. Minor update to winds today
otherwise, forecast remains on track. Update will be out shortly. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear skies. Surface winds: generally west 
to northwest 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon. Winds 
aloft at 10kft MSL: West 5-20 kts. Hot temperatures today will lead 
to increased density altitude. 

Sunday Outlook...VFR. Clear skies. Gusty surface winds of 10 to 20 
kts will develop in the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...Hot and dry again today.
Pacific cold front will arrive too late to bring significant cooling
today, but Sunday will be several degrees cooler under northwesterly
flow aloft. The front will bring gusty northwest winds up to 30 mph
late today and this evening. Post-frontal cooling will last only one
day before a short wave upper ridge comes in from the Pacific Monday
and connects with the main upper ridge and hot air mass in the Great
Basin. On Monday night an upper low off California will develop a
slight chance of thunderstorms in central and eastern Oregon. Any
thunderstorms will have gusty outflow winds but little rain.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...An upper low approaching the 
northern CA coast will inject mid-level moisture into the region as 
reflected in precipitable water values approaching an inch across 
portions of the area Tuesday afternoon. Coupled with the heat, this 
will fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain. 
The upper low will linger, keeping the chance for afternoon 
convection over the area through Thursday. Friday into the weekend
will trend drier and hotter as the persistent SW US high builds 
northward. Temperatures will be above normal through the period.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JS
AVIATION.....MC
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....DG