426 
FXUS64 KTSA 290912
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
412 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Early this morning...surface high pressure had pushed off to the
east southeast allowing for southerly winds to return across much
of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. At the same time...a
wave was exiting the Pacific Northwest and dropping southeast into
the Rocky Mountain region. In response...a tightening of the
pressure gradient was allowing for increasing southerly winds 
across the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles to expand eastward through 
the early morning hours. 

Through this evening...gusty to strong southerly winds are
expected to expand in coverage across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas ahead of the wave dropping southeast toward the
region. Wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph are forecast across Northeast
Oklahoma while gusts of 20 to around 40 mph will be possible
across the rest of the CWA this afternoon. The strongest gusts up
around 45 mph are progged mainly along and north of Interstate 44
where a Wind Advisory is in effect this afternoon. These winds 
combined with afternoon temps warming into the 70s will allow for 
afternoon relative humidity values to fall generally below 30 
percent with 20 to 25 percent range over much of Northeast 
Oklahoma. The result of these conditions will be very high fire 
weather dangers over most of the CWA and a Red Flag Warning in 
effect for much of Northeast Oklahoma. Near critical Grassland 
fire spread rates will be possible over much of the CWA this 
afternoon while critical spread rates are possible within the Red 
Flag Warning. Outdoor burning is not recommended today. 

Winds overnight tonight are forecast to remain gusty in the 25 to
35 mph range over much of Northeast Oklahoma and gusts 10 to 25
mph possible elsewhere. Also overnight...humidity values are
expected to recover from south to north as low level moisture is
transported back into the region with the approaching wave and a
cold front progged to move into the CWA Tuesday. Fire weather 
dangers will remain possible into the overnight hours...especially
across parts of Northeast Oklahoma. 

The cold front is progged to move into Northeast Oklahoma Tuesday
morning and make its way east southeast through the CWA...exiting
Tuesday evening. Behind the cold front...a wind shift out of the
north transporting drier air could impact any ongoing wildfire 
suppression efforts as elevated fire weather dangers will be
possible northwest of Interstate 44. Ahead of the front...rain and
isolated thunderstorm chances become possible during the day
Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of the main upper level trof axis
pushing into the region. The greater thunder potential should be
focused mainly along and south of Interstate 40 Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday night. Instability looks to be limited though a
couple strong storms could be possible Tuesday late
afternoon/evening near the Red River where dewpoints near 60 deg 
look to set up. Precipitation should begin to taper off late
Tuesday night and exit the CWA Wednesday morning as the upper
level trof axis finally shifts east of the region. 

Cooler and weaker winds are forecast Wednesday with highs in the
50s to lower 60s possible as surface high pressure drops through
the region. The cool conditions continue into Wednesday night with
low temps Thursday morning in the 30s while some of the normal
cold spots/valley locations could see temps dip just below
freezing. These conditions should be short lived as southerly
winds return Thursday with a warming trend expected through the
weekend underneath an upper level ridge of high pressure. Gusty 
southerly winds also look to return Friday into the weekend which 
could increase fire weather dangers again over portions of the 
CWA. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  52  67  39 /   0   0  10  10 
FSM   76  49  71  43 /   0   0  30  50 
MLC   76  54  72  43 /   0   0  20  40 
BVO   77  51  64  37 /   0   0  10  10 
FYV   73  47  68  36 /   0   0  30  40 
BYV   72  50  68  37 /   0   0  30  40 
MKO   75  51  70  41 /   0   0  20  30 
MIO   74  51  66  37 /   0   0  10  20 
F10   76  53  71  41 /   0   0  20  20 
HHW   74  50  71  46 /   0   0  20  60 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this 
     evening for OKZ054>066.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening 
     for OKZ054>064.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....20