885 
FXUS64 KMEG 111555
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
955 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021

.UPDATE...

Another mild and windy morning across the Mid-South. Latest 
surface analysis places a 993mb surface low near the Upper 
Peninsula of Michigan with a cold front extending southwest 
through Michigan back through St. Louis and trailing into Tulsa, 
Oklahoma. A 1017mb low was also analyzed along the cold front near
Springfield, Missouri. The pressure gradient remains tight over 
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. As a result, a 
couple locations in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel 
are already seeing winds above 25 mph. Went ahead and issued a 
wind advisory through 00Z for the Missouri Bootheel and northeast 
Arkansas. I believe winds may fall below advisory before 6 PM, but
I don't want it to expire too early.

Temperatures are currently in the mid 60s areawide with a few
light showers moving across west Tennessee. Cloud cover is plenty
and has kept temperatures from climbing too fast. Adjusted
temperatures for short term trends and made a few minor tweaks.
Forecast is on track with temperatures climbing into the lower 70s
areawide with light rain possible north of I-40. 

AC3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021/ 

Another warm and breezy day is on tap for the Mid-South. A 
surface low pressure system is currently situated across northern 
Michigan with a cold front draped south and west through the Mid- 
West and Southern Plains. With strong upper ridging still in place
across the the East Coast and a strengthening closed low to our 
west, this frontal boundary will make a slow southward progression
towards the Mid- South today. This will result in warm advection 
rain showers north of I-40 today and perhaps a few rumbles of 
thunder in our far northwestern counties tonight. Highs will be in
the 70s this afternoon. Cloud cover, increasing southerly flow at
the surface, and southwesterly flow aloft will keep temperatures 
mild overnight, mid 50s to low 60s. 

Rain chances will continue to increase further south as the cold
front slowly sags south and stalls near the I40 corridor.
Temperatures on Friday will still be pretty warm. Areas south of
the front will be in the 70s while areas north will be in the
60s. Lows will generally be in the 50s and 60s. The surface low 
to our north will eventually lift northeast as the large cutoff 
low to our west digs eastward towards the Southern Plains. This 
will amplify upper ridging to our east resulting in the 
aforementioned frontal boundary lifting northward as a warm front 
on Saturday. Rain chances will decrease slightly on Saturday with 
higher chances just along and north of the boundary.

Guidance continues to depict the large cut off low becoming
negatively tilted as it progresses across the Southern Plains
late Saturday. Rain chances will once again increase on Sunday as
upper ridging just to our east becomes highly amplified,
southwesterly flow aloft increases and diffluent flow aloft 
overspreads just to our west. A disorganized line of showers and
thunderstorms is forecast to move into the ArkLaTex and southern
Ozarks during the afternoon and evening hours. The extreme western
portions of our CWA remain outlooked during this period given
dewpoints nearing 60F and strengthening deep layer shear. There
still appears to be some uncertainty as to the amount of
instability. Right now this appears to look like a low instability
high shear event. We will continue to monitor this set up going
into the week. Either way there does appear to be a few stronger
storms on Sunday as this system moves through.

The early part of next week looks mostly dry with temperatures
still in the 60s and low 70s. 

17

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty ssw winds will continue today, though not quite as strong 
as yesterday, as the low level jet weakens this morning. MVFR 
cigs expected at KJBR into the early afternoon otrw mostly VFR 
conds through the period. MVFR cigs and possibly some SHRAs will 
move south into the Mid-South later tonight as a cold front 
approaches northern sections.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Greene-Mississippi.

MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$