014 
FXUS62 KKEY 082100
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
400 PM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have risen to the lower to mid 70s this afternoon
across the Florida Keys, near forecast highs for the day. Strato-
cumulus is increasing in coverage from the east as low-level flow
veers. This is due to the 1035 mb high pressure cell over the 
Carolinas moving slowly to the eastern seaboard. Windy conditions
continue with gusts to near 30 mph at times. Dew points are mainly
in the lower 50s as drier air from aloft reaches the surface in a
well-mixed boundary layer. Key West radar (KBYX) is echo-free,
with the exception of a smoke plume from a prescribed burn over
Cape Sable moving west-southwest over the Gulf waters. 

Changes to the overall forecast this cycle were minimal with the
hazardous marine conditions continuing to be the primary concern.
The best chances for rainfall during the forecast may well come
tonight, but confidence in measurable precipitation is rather low.
The aforementioned well-mixed boundary layer is modeled to become
completely saturated from about 4000 feet to near 7000 feet, which
could support patchy drizzle and perhaps some isolated light
showers. Chances look best across the Lower Keys and out into
adjacent portions of the Straits, where areas of drizzle and
scattered light showers may develop. This pattern may repeat on
tomorrow night and Wednesday night in association with the
nighttime wind surges, but height rises aloft and increasing
subsidence will start to weigh on the already rather thin boundary
layer, likely decreasing overall coverage and intensity of light
showers. The more impactful weather variable will certainly be the
wind, which will continue through the remainder of the week. Temps
will slowly moderate, increasing back to near normal toward the
end of the week. 

The extended forecast (Friday through Sunday night) will start to
bring a more meaningful change to sensible weather as winds east
to southeast and slacken as the western North Atlantic high (at
this point near Bermuda) starts to weaken substantially.
Meanwhile, heights aloft will continue to rise as the upper-level
ridging pivots directly overhead the Keys. This will effectively
end any small chances for precipitation as temperatures warm to
above average (highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 70s).
No cold fronts are on the horizon in the next 7 days. 

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the nearshore and
offshore waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis: A strong dome 
of high pressure located over the eastern third of the United
States will result in an extended period of strong northeast to 
east breezes through Tuesday night. As the high treks eastward, 
breezes will slowly slacken late in the work week into the 
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at island terminals tonight. Patches 
of stratocumulus based between 4000 and 5000 feet are expected, 
particularly at Marathon. Surface winds will be out of the 
northeast near 15 knots with gusts near 25 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in 1989, the daily record cold high temperature of 
66 degrees was last recorded in Key West. Temperature records date
back to 1872. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  66  75  66  76 / 20 10 10 -  
Marathon  66  76  67  77 / 20 10 10 -  

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...WLC
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....Williams

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