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254 
FXUS64 KTSA 050440
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1040 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Previous forecast generally on track this evening. As upper wave
approaches from the northwest tonight, scattered areas of rain 
will begin to develop over eastern Oklahoma, spreading into northwest
Arkansas Friday morning. Ceiling heights will continue to lower 
at most TAF sites through the day with MVFR conditions likely by 
afternoon, including reduced visibilities in the heavier rain 
showers. Went ahead and added thunder chances to MLC late tonight 
into Friday morning given the modest elevated instability that 
develops during this time. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 928 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
The latest data supports the going forecast with only a slow
eastward progression of rain chances overnight due to an
increasingly dry low level airmass the farther east you go.
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across parts of east
central and southeast Oklahoma later tonight, but nothing strong
is expected. The current forecast is on track, but will resend 
the zones to clean up some of the temporal wording.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....12