433 
FXUS64 KMAF 120449
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1049 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...

See the 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

LIFR and IFR conditions will persist tonight through tomorrow 
morning. CIGs may bounce in the early morning hours and will be 
AMD, if necessary. NE winds maybe breezy at times with the wind 
direction backing out of the E to NE for KHOB and KCNM in the 
morning. There is a possibility for BR and FZFG (temporary VIS of 
1/2SM to 1SM) which could coat surfaces ushering in slick and icy 
conditions. Ceilings may improve for western terminals tomorrow 
afternoon but the eastern terminals will stay socked in.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough entering Texas, that extends all 
the way down to the Gulf of CA.  This has spawned a few SHRA over 
the Lwr Trans Pecos, w/even a lightning strike or two this morning. 
This activity should move off to the south and east by this evening 
as the trough exits the area.

Elsewhere, a very cold, shallow AMS is banked up against the higher 
terrain.  So shallow attm, in fact, that it's actually warmer at the 
higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns.  

At KMAF, it appears temps will stay below freezing this afternoon. 
If KMAF stays below freezing through Monday, as now looks likely, 
that will set a new record of 5 consecutive days below freezing.

W/regards to temps...models have been playing catch-up for days, and 
the NBM isn't even doing that.  NAEFS Ensembles begin cratering 
temps today, down to 4-5 std devs below normal by Monday. Throughout 
the past week, the GFS has been most bullish w/the colder air, and 
it looks like other models are coming around to its colder 
solutions. As CIPS analogs go off the GFS, CIPS is referencing Feb 
1985, when we had a low of -11F here at KMAF!  Fortunately, even the 
GFS isn't going that cold, but we could still see some of the 
coldest temps since 1989 or so.  The basic trend will be downward 
thru Monday, w/small diurnal spreads...definitely smaller than 
guidance is wont to go.

Approaching NoCal is a secondary trough which is forecast to dig to 
northern Sonora by 06Z Saturday, developing precip mainly over the 
southern CWA late Friday night/Saturday.  Unfortunately, forecast 
soundings suggest moisture will not be deep enough in some areas for 
SHSN, and looks more like FZRA/IP, mainly over the Pecos Rvr Valley 
of West Texas.  The Permian Basin could start out FZRA, Friday 
night, but change over to SHSN Saturday morning.  Ice accumulations 
should be under a tenth of an inch attm, and this event will likely 
warrant an advisory by the mid shift.

Saturday, a tertiary trough will drop out of the PacNW, and move 
through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Sunday/Sunday night. 
Forecast soundings saturate the column rather quickly Sunday 
afternoon, and p-type should be all SHSN northern areas, and a 
transitioning RASN zone to all liquid far south.  Attm, 4-6" looks 
reasonable, mainly from the Guadalupes-Delawares-Davis Mtns 
eastward.  However, mid-lvl lapse rates in excess of 7C/km are 
forecast w/this Sunday night, and if convective bands develop, all 
bets are off on snow totals.  Accompanying the trough will be yet 
another blast of Arctic air, w/winds along/behind the front bringing 
BLSN and dangerously cold wind chills Sunday night/Monday.  W/snow 
on the ground Monday, and cloud cover, afternoon highs should 
be in the teens or lower from the Pecos Rvr Valley eastward.

Return flow resumes quickly Monday night, for a warmup Tuesday 
afternoon to above-freezing, but another cold front drops in Tuesday 
night, keeping temps below-normal through the extended. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  24  25  20 /  10   0  10  20 
Carlsbad                       36  28  38  28 /   0   0   0  20 
Dryden                         35  35  37  34 /  30  10   0  30 
Fort Stockton                  30  30  41  28 /  10   0   0  40 
Guadalupe Pass                 44  36  46  28 /   0   0   0  20 
Hobbs                          30  24  27  20 /   0   0   0  10 
Marfa                          56  29  54  30 /  10   0   0  40 
Midland Intl Airport           28  25  28  21 /  10   0   0  20 
Odessa                         29  24  29  20 /  10   0   0  30 
Wink                           32  26  35  25 /   0   0   0  30 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

89/10/99