147 
FXUS61 KGYX 061511 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1011 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair but breezy weather is expected today with gusts up to 30
MPH expected. Low pressure is expected to pass southeast of Cape
Cod Sunday into Sunday night. Accumulating snow is expected,
with the highest amounts expected on the coastal plain. The low
pressure train looks to continue early next week with our next 
chance of wintry precipitation centered around Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Clearing over most of the area now and winds are
starting to get gusty with some mixing. That overall trend will
continue into the early afternoon. No major changes.
 
Previous discussion...
Impacts: Minimal. A few snow showers possible in the mountains.

725am Update...Made further adjustments to PoPs for eastern
zones to account for the light snow showers moving through the
area. AUG did report some light snow out of these so bumped PoPs
up into the chance category. Also adjusted temperatures to match
the latest observations. The rest of the forecast looks to be in
decent shape. 

525am Update...Made some minor adjustments to temperatures to 
match the latest observations and better align things through 
the first half of the morning. PoPs were increased over portions
of western ME through the next few hours to account for that 
persistent area of light snow showers continuing its slow march 
east. The rest of the going forecast looks to be on track.

Previously...

An area of snow showers persists over northern zones with both 
Berlin and Whitefield reporting light snow at this time. In 
addition, the fog from earlier tonight looks to be on its way out as 
winds pick up. 

A few snow showers are expected across the mountains today, but 
otherwise no precipitation is expected with dry westerly flow 
developing this morning and continuing through the day. It will be 
somewhat breezy, making it feel cooler than the forecast mid 20s to 
mid 30s high temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Impacts: Widespread accumulating snow expected on Sunday as low 
pressure passes to the southeast of the region. Still some 
uncertainty with amounts, but the highest amounts are expected along 
the coast. Slick snow-covered roads expected for most locations
Sunday afternoon and evening.

Quiet weather is expected tonight as high pressure quickly passes to 
our southeast. The high should allow some locations to clear out 
this evening, but winds will probably remain elevated for long 
enough to nullify ideal radiational cooling conditions; however, did 
go ever so slightly lower than the model consensus for lows.

Low pressure is expected to pass southeast of Nantucket on Sunday, 
putting NH and western ME on the northern side of the system and 
close enough for at least coastal areas to see accumulating snow
late Sunday morning into early Sunday evening. Precipitation 
type does not look like an issue for this system as temperatures
throughout the column are expected to be cold enough to support
snow across the region.

Specific snowfall amounts, however, remain uncertain. The first
issue is the track of the system; a track closer to the coast 
would favor more snow, but any shift back to the east would mean
the opposite. The second issue is the QPF forecast. Overall, 
the system looks wetter than the previous forecast, so QPF was 
bumped up accordingly. However, there are considerable 
differences between the wetter high-res guidance and the drier 
global model guidance, even here a little more than 24-30 hours 
from onset that leaves some uncertainty in the QPF. That said, 
it seems safe to say at this time that the highest amounts are 
expected along and near the coast and over into southwestern NH;
these areas are currently in the 3-4 inch range, but amounts 
decrease from there as you head inland. Coastal Rockingham could
end up seeing even higher amounts than this, necessitating the 
issuance of a winter storm watch there. Amounts will likely
change in future forecast updates depending on how things trend
amongst the guidance. Portions of NH may see an end to the snow
late in the afternoon, but it looks to still be ongoing for 
most of the region as we head into Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will move away from the forecast area Sunday night
with any snow ending. The exception may be the mountains where
upslope snow showers may persist into early Monday.

The next short wave trough to approach the region will likely
bring another round of snow to New England on Tuesday into
Tuesday night. There are still timing differences in the 00z
guidance suite. However, most guidance does support a light to
potentially moderate snowfall centered around Tuesday. At this
time it looks as though the 00z deterministic and ensemble
guidance is a bit flatter with the short wave trough so at this
juncture, the potential for a more significant snowstorm seems
to be waning. However, a plowable snowfall remains in the cards.

A more amplified low pressure system is being modeled for Friday
and/or Saturday with a potentially more significant winter
weather event.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...A bit of a mess this morning with lingering fog and
snow showers. However, winds will pick up this morning and mix
out the fog and the snow showers will come to an end. Gusty
northwest winds should diminish tonight as high pressure briefly
passes through. Widespread IFR conditions expected on Sunday in
light to moderate snow.

Long Term...VFR conditions return later Sunday night and Monday
as low pressure pulls away from the forecast area. Another 
chance of widespread snow late Tue into Wed could mean more IFR
or lower conditions then.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Upgraded the gale watch to a warning for the outer
waters and issued a SCA for the bays. Winds and seas diminish
tonight as high pressure passes over the waters. SCA conditions
expected over the outer waters on Sunday as low pressure passes
to the southeast.

Long Term...SCA conditions are expected Sunday night and Monday
into the wake of low pressure. There is a chance that low end
gales may occur. High pressure then builds over the waters
Monday night into Tuesday with subsiding conditions. A period of
SCA conditions will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as
low pressure is expected to move northeastward into the Gulf of
Maine.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday 
     night for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ151-153.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro