555 
FXUS63 KSGF 060935
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
335 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

A relatively strong shortwave trough will dig into the Middle
Mississippi Valley this afternoon into the evening. Meanwhile, at
the surface a strong cold front will allow cold air to filter into
the region as it progresses through the region today. Expect 
precipitation to accompany this system as strong frontogenesis
aids forcing ahead and along the frontal boundary.

Expect rain at the onset late this morning into the early 
afternoon along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. Rain will
then quickly change over to a rain/snow mix before becoming all
snow by this afternoon as cold air filters in from the northwest
to southeast. Meanwhile, areas south of the Highway 60 corridor
will see more rain before transitioning to a rain/snow mix late
this afternoon.

Accumulating snowfall is forecast occur in areas along and north
of the Highway 60 corridor. Snowfall accumulation efficiency will
have a few factors working against it including: daytime snowfall,
ground temperatures initially above freezing, and air 
temperatures initially above/near freezing. However, many of these
factors working against accumulating snowfall will be overcome as
strong cold air advects into the region late this afternoon into 
the early evening. 

With that being said, accumulating snowfall is forecast for
portions of the region along and north of the Highway 60 corridor.
Snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected along and north of
the Highway 54 corridor. As you head south towards the Highway 60
corridor, snowfall amounts will generally be around 1 to 2 inches.
An additional concern will be the flash freezing potential to 
occur on wet roadways as temperatures quickly fall in the lower 
20s as the front pushes through and the sun sets. This will need 
to be watched closely this afternoon. Confidence is increasing in 
minor road impacts occurring, especially in the areas that see a 
quick transition to all snow as cold air filters in. As a result, 
the Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded south towards the 
spine of Ozarks plateau. The advisory goes into effect later this 
morning through the late evening. The advisory includes counties 
along and north of a line from Fort Scott to Springfield to 
Houston.

Expect the snow to taper off behind the frontal passage late this
evening leaving behind a cold night. Overnight lows will range 
from single digits across central Missouri to middle to upper 
teens along the Missouri/Arkansas border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

By Sunday, temperatures will slowly rebound with highs in the 
middle 20s across central Missouri to upper 30s across far
southwest Missouri. A weak shortwave may bring the potential for
light snow or flurries late Sunday night into Monday, but no
impacts are expected at this time.

Additional chances for precipitation will occur through the day on
Monday into Tuesday as another frontal passage makes its way
through the region. However, the system is fairly limited in
moisture.

As we head into Tuesday, a strong Arctic airmass begins to make
its presence felt across the central CONUS. Models are in good
agreement that this Arctic blast may last well into mid-February.
This airmass will be responsible for overnight low temperatures 
in the single digits to near zero degrees by mid to late week. 
Additionally, sub-zero wind chills can be expected. Daily highs 
will struggle to reach anywhere near freezing from Tuesday through
next weekend. Additionally, low chances will exist for light snow
through the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021

VFR flight conditions will persist throughout the night. Winds 
will come around to a more southeasterly directions towards 
morning. Rain and snow will break out across southern Missouri 
between 12Z-18z with ceilings dropping into the MVFR category. The
wintry mix will change to snow between 18Z-00Z with ceilings 
dropping into the IFR category. Conditions will improve after 00Z,
with northwest winds picking up behind the cold front.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this 
     evening for MOZ055>058-067>069.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Raberding