196 
FXUS62 KMHX 060611
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
111 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will stall off the Southeast coast Saturday. Another
coastal low will move along our Sunday and Sunday night. High 
pressure briefly builds into the area Monday with unsettled 
weather possible across the area for the middle to latter half 
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1 AM Saturday...Infrared satellite indicates widespread
mid and high level clouds across the region in the wake of the
cold front. Temperatures should start a more steady drop in the
next couple of hours as somewhat lower dewpoints start to spread
eastward toward the coast. Overall, no major adjustments needed
to the current forecast. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of of 950 Friday...Lowered high temps a few degrees across 
the southern tier given expected aftn cloud cover. Otherwise, no
changes to the prev disc.

Surface high pressure will be centered over the area tomorrow 
morning, while the cold front will be stalled well south of the 
area. Expect, sunny skies in the morning with in an increase of 
clouds by the afternoon as the high slides and a robust 
shortwave trough pushes into the lower Miss River Valley with 
low pressure developing across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The 
Hi-Res models continue to agree with light rain showers to 
develop across the southern counties during the mid to late 
afternoon, but it may take some time for the column to moisten 
as drier air may continue to linger across the area. Expect 
highs in upper 40s to low 50s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM Friday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails across much 
of the CONUS keeping an active pattern across the region through
the long term. 

Saturday night through Sunday...The shortwave pushes across the
Southeast Saturday night with the surface low quickly lifting 
along the offshore frontal boundary to just off Cape Hatteras by
12z Sunday. Precip chances increase through the evening with 
favorable upper level jet dynamics and strong isentropic lift 
maximized after midnight. There is a slight chance for p-type 
issues across the northwest sections at the onset of precip in 
the evening into the early morning hours Sunday but by the time 
the lower levels become saturated a pronounced warm nose will be
developing aloft bringing an end to the threat of winter wx. 
Confidence is not high enough to include any winter precip in 
the forecast at this time but if it does occur, impacts are 
expected to be very limited. The low will quickly pull away from
the area with most guidance pushing the rain offshore by the 
afternoon but lingering moisture may keep skies mainly cloudy 
through the afternoon. Guidance has increased rainfall amounts 
with this system with around 0.75-1.00 inches possible.

Monday through Thursday...Drier air and subsidence develop 
Monday as high pressure builds in from the north, however the 
high quickly pushes offshore Monday night with southerly return
flow developing Tuesday bringing a nice but brief warm up with
temps expected in the 60s. A progressive pattern will prevail
mid to late with with near zonal flow aloft however guidance has
diverged a bit with timing and track of a series of systems that
will track across the Southeast leading to below normal
confidence in the forecast next week. For example, the 
operational 00z/05 ECMWF brings a rather robust system across 
the area Tuesday with a cold front pushing well south of the 
area Tuesday night with high pressure building into the area 
Wednesday and Thursday while the GFS/CMC is weaker with the 
first system and the front stalling closer to the coast with a 
series of weak systems pushing across the area Wednesday and 
Thursday. Will follow closely to NBM/WPC guidance keeping slight
chance to chance PoPs through the latter half of the extended 
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Sunday/...
As of 105 AM Saturday...Widespread mid clouds will dominate the
area skies through much of the day as weak high pressure builds
across eastern NC. Deeper moisture starts to move back in later
in the afternoon and early evening as front lifts back north.
Ceiling drop to MVFR with some light rain by around 00z, then
drop further to IFR after midnight as rain becomes steady into
early Sunday morning. 

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
As of 430 AM Thursday...High pressure briefly builds into the 
area Saturday with VFR conditions expected but another system 
is expected to impact the area Saturday night into Sunday with 
another round of sub-VFR conditions possible. High pressure 
builds into the are Monday with VFR conditions expected. Rain
chances increase Tuesday and could see periods of sub-VFR
conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Saturday/...
As of 110 AM Saturday...Latest trend show winds/seas dropping
quickly and SCA conditions are quite marginal now. Will likely
drop the remaining SCA on the next update. Expect northerly 
winds 5-10 kts tomorrow morning, becoming ENE 10-15 kts by the 
afternoon. Seas will become 3-5 ft by tomorrow mid-morning and 
continue to subside to 3-4 ft by early evening.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
As of 5 AM Friday...High pressure across the area Saturday will
slide offshore Saturday night with area of low pressure lifting
along the coast after midnight. Lingering SCA across the central
waters Saturday morning should quickly end with seas dropping 
below 6 ft. Winds increase Saturday night and Sunday as an area
of low pressure lifts across the offshore waters and could see 
a period of SCA conditions across the waters. The low lifts 
away from the area late Sunday with high pressure building in 
Monday bringing better boating conditions. Another system is
expected to impact the area Tuesday or Tuesday night but
guidance is not in best agreement with the strength. Stronger
guidance suggest a period of SCA conditions may return on
Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK/ML
MARINE...CTC/SK/BM