269 
FXUS62 KMHX 060301
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1001 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will stall off the Southeast coast Saturday. Another
coastal low will move along our Sunday and Sunday night. High 
pressure briefly builds into the area Monday with unsettled 
weather possible across the area for the middle to latter half 
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 950 PM Friday...Cold front has pushed through the region
and will stall offshore overnight. A drier and cooler airmass
will filter into the region through early Sat morning. 
Overnight lows is expected to drop into the mid/upper 30s inland
and around 40 degree across the Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of of 950 Friday...Lowered high temps a few degrees across 
the southern tier given expected aftn cloud cover. Otherwise, no
changes to the prev disc.

Surface high pressure will be centered over the area tomorrow 
morning, while the cold front will be stalled well south of the 
area. Expect, sunny skies in the morning with in an increase of 
clouds by the afternoon as the high slides and a robust 
shortwave trough pushes into the lower Miss River Valley with 
low pressure developing across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The 
Hi-Res models continue to agree with light rain showers to 
develop across the southern counties during the mid to late 
afternoon, but it may take some time for the column to moisten 
as drier air may continue to linger across the area. Expect 
highs in upper 40s to low 50s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Friday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails across much 
of the CONUS keeping an active pattern across the region through
the long term. 

Saturday night through Sunday...The shortwave pushes across the
Southeast Saturday night with the surface low quickly lifting 
along the offshore frontal boundary to just off Cape Hatteras by
12z Sunday. Precip chances increase through the evening with 
favorable upper level jet dynamics and strong isentropic lift 
maximized after midnight. There is a slight chance for p-type 
issues across the northwest sections at the onset of precip in 
the evening into the early morning hours Sunday but by the time 
the lower levels become saturated a pronounced warm nose will be
developing aloft bringing an end to the threat of winter wx. 
Confidence is not high enough to include any winter precip in 
the forecast at this time but if it does occur, impacts are 
expected to be very limited. The low will quickly pull away from
the area with most guidance pushing the rain offshore by the 
afternoon but lingering moisture may keep skies mainly cloudy 
through the afternoon. Guidance has increased rainfall amounts 
with this system with around 0.75-1.00 inches possible.

Monday through Thursday...Drier air and subsidence develop 
Monday as high pressure builds in from the north, however the 
high quickly pushes offshore Monday night with southerly return
flow developing Tuesday bringing a nice but brief warm up with
temps expected in the 60s. A progressive pattern will prevail
mid to late with with near zonal flow aloft however guidance has
diverged a bit with timing and track of a series of systems that
will track across the Southeast leading to below normal
confidence in the forecast next week. For example, the 
operational 00z/05 ECMWF brings a rather robust system across 
the area Tuesday with a cold front pushing well south of the 
area Tuesday night with high pressure building into the area 
Wednesday and Thursday while the GFS/CMC is weaker with the 
first system and the front stalling closer to the coast with a 
series of weak systems pushing across the area Wednesday and 
Thursday. Will follow closely to NBM/WPC guidance keeping slight
chance to chance PoPs through the latter half of the extended 
period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Saturday Evening/... 
As of 620 PM Fri...Cold front will push through the region over
the next few hours. Expect winds to shift from the WSW to a 
more W/WNW early this evening with ceilings lifting behind it. 
Many locations improving to MVFR/VFR already. A few moments of 
IFR are still possible over the next hour as we transition to a 
post-frontal airmass, but a rapid improvement is expected 
nonetheless. Winds will calm overnight with high clouds 
overhead. Dry air will infiltrate overnight, preventing much fog
from forming. Weak sfc high pressure will build across the area
Saturday, keeping most TAF sites at VFR during the day. Cold
front will stall offshore and remain there through the afternoon
before creeping its way northward again Saturday night as the
next low develops along the boundary. Ceilings will begin to
lower again ahead of the front towards the end of this TAF
period.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
As of 430 AM Thursday...High pressure briefly builds into the 
area Saturday with VFR conditions expected but another system 
is expected to impact the area Saturday night into Sunday with 
another round of sub-VFR conditions possible. High pressure 
builds into the are Monday with VFR conditions expected. Rain
chances increase Tuesday and could see periods of sub-VFR
conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 1000 PM Friday...Small Craft Advisories for Pamlico Sound
and northern coastal waters allowed to expire. SCA remain in 
place for the southern and central coastal waters. Otherwise, no
changes to the prev disc.

Prev disc...The latest buoy observations are showing SW at 
15-25 with seas 4-6 ft north of Diamond Shoals and 6-8 ft south.
Winds are peaking now to 15-25 kts through this evening, then 
becoming W/NW behind the cold front and diminish to 15-20 kts 
overnight. Seas will remain 4-6 ft overnight. Expect northerly 
winds 5-10 kts tomorrow morning, becoming ENE 10-15 kts by the 
afternoon. Seas will become 3-5 ft by tomorrow mid-morning and 
continue to subside to 3-4 ft by early evening.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
As of 5 AM Friday...High pressure across the area Saturday will
slide offshore Saturday night with area of low pressure lifting
along the coast after midnight. Lingering SCA across the central
waters Saturday morning should quickly end with seas dropping 
below 6 ft. Winds increase Saturday night and Sunday as an area
of low pressure lifts across the offshore waters and could see 
a period of SCA conditions across the waters. The low lifts 
away from the area late Sunday with high pressure building in 
Monday bringing better boating conditions. Another system is
expected to impact the area Tuesday or Tuesday night but
guidance is not in best agreement with the strength. Stronger
guidance suggest a period of SCA conditions may return on
Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...BM/ML
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/ML
MARINE...SK/BM