261 
FXUS64 KMOB 100247 AAB
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
947 PM CDT Sat May 9 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...A broad upper trof pattern
over the eastern half of the CONUS amplifies somewhat and becomes
oriented over the eastern states during the period. This
transition allows for drier air in the upper levels of the
atmosphere to flow into the region, resulting in the cirriform 
cloudiness over the forecast area diminishing well inland
overnight then shifting eastward out of the area Sunday morning. A
generally light northerly surface flow prevails over the area 
through the period, except for becoming southerly near the
immediate coast in the afternoon. For the rest of tonight, have 
lowered overnight lows by about 3 degrees based on the latest 
trends with lows ranging from the lower 40s well inland to the 
lower/mid 50s at the coast. Highs on Sunday range from the mid 70s
well inland to near 80 elsewhere. Lows Sunday night range from 
the upper 40s well inland to the mid/upper 50s at the coast. A low
rip current risk is expected through the period. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 610 PM CDT Sat May 9 2020/ 

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions continue for the next 24 hours.
Northerly winds 5 to 10 knots diminish overnight. A northerly flow
around around 5 knots is expected on Sunday, except for becoming
southerly near the immediate coast in the afternoon. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Sat May 9 2020/ 

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...Forecast for this afternoon
appears to be on track. Current temperatures are in good agreement
with the hourly forecast temperature curve, so no adjustments
needed there. Still looks like afternoon highs will range from
upper 60s well inland to the low to mid 70s coastal south of I-65
in Alabama and over the coastal counties. Do have some mid and
upper high clouds across the area, especially over the coastal
counties and after looking at satellite imagery expect this to 
continue through the remainder of the afternoon and into the 
evening hours. With this, down toward the coast, afternoon max
temperatures this afternoon may actually turn out a few degrees
cooler than expected (possibly not rising out of the 60s). These
slightly lower temperatures from expected have kept afternoon
relative humidity a little higher than previously thought so
hopefully that will help the wildfire situation in the florida 
panhandle. For now, no changes to forecast will be made.

For tonight, as mentioned, the mid/high level clouds will continue
across most most the area. This could keep min temps tonight a few
degrees above MOS guidance, but still ranging from low to mid 40s
far inland areas and the lower 50s further south, but some upper
50s and even possibly a few lower 60s along the immediate coast.
There may be a few showers offshore tonight, but not expecting
anything over land areas. A light east to northeast windflow is
expected overnight.

On Sunday, expect more of the same. Temperatures will likely be
slightly warmer on Sunday, with high mainly in the mid to upper
70s, but a few 80s over the interior panhandle and east of I-65 in
south central Alabama. Will still be looking at partly to mostly
cloudy skies as well, but no rain is expected, although models
indicate that there may be a few more showers over the Gulf 
waters Sunday than there were on Saturday and Saturday night.
Dewpoint temperatures start off in the lower 30s many areas Sunday
morning, but likely increasing during the day. Afternoon relative
humidity will be range from the mid 30s over interior Florida
panhandle to the lower 40s down near the coast. /12 

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...Dry air
continues to funnel in as an expansive area of surface high
pressure will funnel out of the northern rockies into the central
Gulf Coast. With strong subsidence overhead, storm chances will 
be close to zero through Tuesday. However, temperatures will be on
the rise throughout the period. Highs will begin the period in 
the upper 70s to low 80s and slowly increase into the mid 80s by 
Tuesday. Lows will be cooler over the period given the low 
dewpoints with lows in the 50s. Winds will remain light out of the
north given the location of the high. the main concern over the 
short term will be in the way of fire and more information will 
be located below. BB/03

EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Upper level high
pressure over the souther plains will begin to move eastward over
the area by Wednesday. In response to the upper ridge, the
expansive surface ridge will continue to shift into the western
Atlantic. This will allow of more of a return flow to setup during
the extended period. Moisture will begin to return to the area
leading to high dewpoints and slight increasing chance of showers
and storms. Storm chances will be low and likely confined to west
of I-65. Temperatures will also continue to rise with highs into
the mid to upper 90s. This will likely persist into early next
week. BB/03

MARINE...Winds have subsided somewhat across the marine area this 
afternoon, and the Small Craft Advisory was allowed to expire 3 PM. 
Observations indicate that winds have decreased to 10 to 15 knots 
over area bays, but still an occasional gust to near 20 knots. 
Offshore over the Gulf waters, winds are still generally in the 15 
to 20 knot range, so will maintain the Exercise Caution for small 
craft operators over the Gulf marine zones through this evening. 
Seas are gradually subsiding as well, now 2 to 4 feet near shore and 
3 to 5 feet well offshore, and expect these to further subside 
tonight. A light to moderate northeast to east flow is expected over 
the Gulf waters through midweek, before becoming more southeasterly 
late in the week. Seas no more than 2 to 4 feet through Wednesday, 
but with the longer fetch associated with the more southeasterly 
flow late in the week look for seas to again increase to around 4 to 
6 feet well offshore. No showers or storms expected. /12

Fire...Fire danger will likely remain high into the middle of
next week. Winds will likely subside over the next couple of days;
however, low relative humidity values in the low to mid 20s and
continued drought will still pose concerns. No rain is expected
over the next 5 days which will lead to already severe drought
along the Alabama coast and northwest Florida Panhandle to
continue to worsen and expand northward. Fire danger will likely
continue into the late week; however, afternoon relative humidity
values will be on the rise as moisture returns to the area. BB/03 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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