661 
FXUS63 KTOP 291742
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1242 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

08Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low lifting over the Upper
Midwest. Another low amplitude shortwave was noted approaching 
the central CA coast. A third upper low could be see over the Gulf
of Alaska. Shortwave ridging was seen over the central and 
northern Rockies. At the surface, a low pressure system was 
lifting into WI and weak ridging was filling in behind this system
across the southern and central plains. 

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

For today and tonight, the weather is expected to be quieter as 
shortwave ridging develops over the central plains. Forecast 
soundings show a dry airmass moving in with deep mixing 
anticipated. This should allow for sunny skies to prevail. A deep 
westerly wind profile is also expected to help warm temps into the
mid and upper 60s. This may also cause dry air to mix to the 
surface causing RH values to fall into the 20 to 30 percent range.
With surface winds in the 10 to 20 MPH range, fire danger may be 
of some concern and something for the day shift to keep an eye on.
Winds let up overnight tonight. Combined with the dry air, lows 
should fall into the mid 30s and around 40. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

The next chance for shower and perhaps a rumble of thunder 
continues to be late Monday and Monday night. Overall models have 
trended slightly south with the track of the storm system. But 
there appears to be good Q vector convergence moving across 
central KS while the better PV anomaly stays mainly south of the 
forecast area. The main affect of this is to shift the higher POPs
south, although still maintaining likely POPs across most of the 
forecast area. Some steep mid level lapse rates initially support 
some modest elevated instability. This does not look to stick 
around for long. Once precip begins, the column is progged to 
saturate with lapse rates close to the moist adiabat. So overall 
thunderstorms look to remain isolated if they develop at all. This
system is expected to remain progressive with precip moving out 
early in the day Tuesday. 

For Wednesday through Friday, confidence in the forecast remains 
below average as models show little run to run consistency. Although 
the model runs from the same initialization time seem to be coming 
up with similar solutions. In short a closed low is anticipated over 
the northern plains. As energy rotates around the upper low, a cold 
front is projected to move through the central plains. Timing of 
this boundary has varied over the last couple days from anywhere 
between Tuesday night and now Thursday night. Overall synoptic 
forcing for vertical motion appears to be weakly organized so I 
think the better chances for precip through the second half of work 
week will be centered around when the front moves through. For now 
just have some low chance POPs Thursday and Thursday night given the 
poor run to run consistency. 

Temps are forecast to remain on the mild side with highs in the 60s 
and lows generally in the 40s. Once the front does move through, 
this is expected to cool temps with highs in the 50s Friday and 
Saturday. Lows are forecast to fall to around the freezing mark by 
Saturday morning. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

VFR conditions prevail through this period. Any chances for 
precipitation should hold off until at least the next forecast 
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Drake